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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 8:00 PM ET · Final Tulsa 6, Arkansas 34

Tulsa at Arkansas

Arkansas −9.5 at our first look, −7 at kickoff. American Athletic vs. SEC.

Conditions · Razorback Stadium: At kickoff: 73°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Tulsa 0.0 · Arkansas 0.0. Market: moved 2.5 toward Tulsa.

Landed: Tulsa 6, Arkansas 34. Arkansas covered the closing line (Arkansas −7). The move toward Tulsa was wrong. 40 points, under the closing total of 51.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Arkansas Razorbacks 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Arkansas lineArkansas Razorbacks spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Arkansas.
−10−9−8−7−6Opening line−9.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+3Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−0.5Closing line−7
−10−9−8−7−6Opening line−9.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+3Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−0.5Closing line−7

Final: Tulsa 6, Arkansas 34. Arkansas beat the closing number by 21.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−9.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET+3
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 3:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line−7
What moved the Arkansas moneylineArkansas Razorbacks moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Arkansas.
−194−213−233−257−285−317Opening line−308Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−199Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−214Less than the spread implies−231Closing line−231
−194−213−233−257−285−317Opening line−308Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−199Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−214Less than the spread implies−231Closing line−231
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line75.5% (−308)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET66.6% (−199)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 3:55 PM ET68.2% (−214)
Less than the spread implies69.8% (−231)
Closing line69.8% (−231)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
515253Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−2Closing line51
515253Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−2Closing line51

Final: 40 points, under the closing total of 51.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 7:55 PM ET+0.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 3:55 PM ET-2
Closing line51

Every Book · Arkansas side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−7 −108−2651.38 69.8%51Sat 7:55 PM
DraftKings−7 −105−2781.36 70.5%51.5Sat 7:55 PM
FanDuel−6.5 −122−2601.38 69.1%50.5Sat 7:55 PM
BetMGM−7 −105−2751.36 70.1%51.5Sat 7:55 PM
Caesars−7 −107−2651.38 69.6%51.5Sat 7:55 PM
Fanatics−7 −110−2751.36 70.1%51.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers−7 −113−3051.33 71.3%50.5Sat 7:55 PM
BetOnline−6.5 −115−2651.38 69.8%51Sat 7:55 PM
Bovada−7 −105−2701.37 70.0%51.5Sat 7:55 PM
LowVig−6.5 −115−2651.38 69.8%51Sat 7:55 PM
MyBookie−7 −110−2641.38 69.1%51Sat 7:55 PM
BetUS−7 −105−2601.38 69.7%51Sat 7:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.