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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 3:30 PM ET · Final UConn 21, Miami (OH) 24

UConn at Miami (OH)

Miami (OH) −5.5 at our first look, −2.5 at kickoff. FBS Independents vs. Mid-American.

Conditions · Yager Stadium: At kickoff: 70°F, wind 7 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: UConn 0.0 · Miami (OH) 0.0. Market: moved 3 toward UConn.

Landed: UConn 21, Miami (OH) 24. Miami (OH) covered the closing line (Miami (OH) −2.5). The move toward UConn was right. 45 points, under the closing total of 52.5.

UConn Huskies 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Miami (OH) RedHawks 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Miami (OH) lineMiami (OH) RedHawks spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Miami (OH).
−6−5−4−3−2Opening line−5.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+2Closing line−2.5
−6−5−4−3−2Opening line−5.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+2Closing line−2.5

Final: UConn 21, Miami (OH) 24. Miami (OH) beat the closing number by 0.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−5.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 11:55 AM ET+2
Closing line−2.5
What moved the Miami (OH) moneylineMiami (OH) RedHawks moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Miami (OH).
−100−122−150−186Opening line−176Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−150Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−105Less than the spread implies−129Closing line−129
−100−122−150−186Opening line−176Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−150Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−105Less than the spread implies−129Closing line−129
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line63.8% (−176)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 11:55 AM ET60.0% (−150)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 11:55 AM ET51.3% (−105)
Less than the spread implies56.3% (−129)
Closing line56.3% (−129)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
484950515253Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+3Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+1Closing line52.5
484950515253Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+3Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+1Closing line52.5

Final: 45 points, under the closing total of 52.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 1:55 PM ET+3
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 26, 1:55 PM ET+1
Closing line52.5

Every Book · Miami (OH) side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −115−1441.69 56.3%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−2.5 −112−1421.70 56.3%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−2.5 −118−1461.68 56.9%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−2.5 −112—— —52.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−3.5 −118−1791.56 61.6%51Mon 11:55 AM
Fanatics−3.5 −115−1801.56 61.6%51.5Mon 9:55 PM
BetRivers−2.5 −115−1431.70 56.0%51.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−2.5 −117−1451.69 57.1%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−2.5 −115−1351.74 55.3%52Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−2.5 −113−1451.69 57.1%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−2.5 −110−1451.69 56.3%52Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−2.5 −115−1401.71 56.2%52.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.