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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 3:30 PM ET · Final Utah 31, Iowa State 17

12Utah at Iowa State

Iowa State +11.5 at our first look, +7.5 at kickoff. Big 12 game.

Conditions · Jack Trice Stadium: At kickoff: 62°F, wind 14 mph (gusts 23), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Utah 0.0 · Iowa State 0.0. Market: moved 4 toward Iowa State.

Landed: Utah 31, Iowa State 17. Utah covered the closing line (Iowa State +7.5). The move toward Iowa State was wrong. 48 points, over the closing total of 47.5.

Utah Utes 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Iowa State Cyclones 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Iowa State lineIowa State Cyclones spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Iowa State.
+7+8+9+10+11+12Opening line+11.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−3.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−0.5Closing line+7.5
+7+8+9+10+11+12Opening line+11.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−3.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−0.5Closing line+7.5

Final: Utah 31, Iowa State 17. Iowa State missed the closing number by 6.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+11.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 3:55 PM ET-3.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 3:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line+7.5
What moved the Iowa State moneylineIowa State Cyclones moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Iowa State.
+400+355+317+285+257+233Opening line+405Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+260Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+241Less than the spread implies+276Closing line+276
+400+355+317+285+257+233Opening line+405Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+260Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+241Less than the spread implies+276Closing line+276
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line19.8% (+405)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 3:55 PM ET27.8% (+260)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 3:55 PM ET29.3% (+241)
Less than the spread implies26.6% (+276)
Closing line26.6% (+276)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
474849Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 AM−1.5Closing line47.5
474849Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 AM−1.5Closing line47.5

Final: 48 points, over the closing total of 47.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 3:55 PM ET+0.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 22, 1:55 AM ET-1.5
Closing line47.5

Every Book · Iowa State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+7.5 −111+2603.60 26.6%47.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings+7.5 −112+2603.60 26.6%47.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel+7.5 −110+2503.50 27.3%46.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM+7.5 −110+2603.60 26.6%47.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars+7.5 −110+2653.65 26.2%47.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics+7.5 −110+2603.60 26.6%47Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers+7.5 −114+2503.50 27.1%47Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline+7.5 −112+2633.63 26.5%47.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada+7.5 −115+2653.65 26.3%47Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie+7.5 −110+2553.55 26.8%47Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS+7.5 −115+2653.65 26.4%47.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.