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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 5:00 PM ET · Final Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20

Wisconsin at Penn State

Penn State −11.5 at our first look, −10 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Beaver Stadium: At kickoff: 62°F, wind 10 mph (gusts 26), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Wisconsin 0.0 · Penn State 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward Wisconsin.

Landed: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20. Wisconsin covered the closing line (Penn State −10). The move toward Wisconsin was right. 44 points, push the closing total of 44.

Wisconsin Badgers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Penn State Nittany Lions 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Penn State linePenn State Nittany Lions spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Penn State.
−12−11−10Opening line−11.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+1.5Closing line−10
−12−11−10Opening line−11.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+1.5Closing line−10

Final: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20. Penn State missed the closing number by 14.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−11.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET+1.5
Closing line−10
What moved the Penn State moneylinePenn State Nittany Lions moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Penn State.
−317−335−355−376Opening line−369Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−317Less than the spread implies−326Closing line−326
−317−335−355−376Opening line−369Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−317Less than the spread implies−326Closing line−326
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line78.7% (−369)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET76.0% (−317)
Less than the spread implies76.5% (−326)
Closing line76.5% (−326)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4243444546Opening line42.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 1:55 PM+3Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 AM−1.5Closing line44
4243444546Opening line42.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 1:55 PM+3Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 AM−1.5Closing line44

Final: 44 points, exactly on the closing total of 44.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line42.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 19, 1:55 PM ET+3
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 5:55 AM ET-1.5
Closing line44

Every Book · Penn State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−10 −110−3901.26 76.5%44Sat 3:55 PM
DraftKings−10 −110−3801.26 76.0%43.5Sat 3:55 PM
FanDuel−9.5 −120−4001.25 76.6%43.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetMGM−10 −112−3751.27 76.4%43.5Sat 3:55 PM
Caesars−10 −107−3801.26 76.0%43.5Sat 3:55 PM
Fanatics−10 −110−4001.25 76.6%43.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetRivers−10 −114−4801.21 78.3%44Sat 3:55 PM
BetOnline−10 −116−3901.26 76.5%44Sat 3:55 PM
Bovada−10 −110−4101.24 76.5%44Sat 3:55 PM
LowVig−10 −109−3901.26 76.5%44Sat 3:55 PM
MyBookie−10 −110−4211.24 77.2%44Sat 3:55 PM
BetUS−10 −110−3901.26 76.6%44Sat 3:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.