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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 3:30 PM ET · Final Auburn 14, Tennessee 24

Auburn at 15Tennessee

Tennessee −7.5 at our first look, −6.5 at kickoff. SEC game.

Conditions · Neyland Stadium: At kickoff: 75°F, wind 2 mph, rain.

The read at kickoff

News: Auburn 0.0 · Tennessee 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Auburn.

Landed: Auburn 14, Tennessee 24. Tennessee covered the closing line (Tennessee −6.5). The move toward Auburn was wrong. 38 points, under the closing total of 54.

Auburn Tigers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Tennessee Volunteers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Tennessee lineTennessee Volunteers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Tennessee.
−8−7−6Opening line−7.5Market move, no reported newsThu 7:55 PM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+1.5Closing line−6.5
−8−7−6Opening line−7.5Market move, no reported newsThu 7:55 PM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+1.5Closing line−6.5

Final: Auburn 14, Tennessee 24. Tennessee beat the closing number by 3.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−7.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 24, 7:55 PM ET-0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 26, 7:55 PM ET+1.5
Closing line−6.5
What moved the Tennessee moneylineTennessee Volunteers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Tennessee.
−213−223−233−245−257−270Opening line−245Market move, no reported newsThu 7:55 PM−261Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM−211Less than the spread implies−222Closing line−222
−213−223−233−245−257−270Opening line−245Market move, no reported newsThu 7:55 PM−261Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM−211Less than the spread implies−222Closing line−222
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line71.0% (−245)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 24, 7:55 PM ET72.3% (−261)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 26, 7:55 PM ET67.8% (−211)
Less than the spread implies68.9% (−222)
Closing line68.9% (−222)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5455565758Opening line57.5Market move, no reported newsFri 7:55 PM+0.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM−4Closing line54
5455565758Opening line57.5Market move, no reported newsFri 7:55 PM+0.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM−4Closing line54

Final: 38 points, under the closing total of 54.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line57.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 7:55 PM ET+0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 26, 7:55 PM ET-4
Closing line54

Every Book · Tennessee side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−6.5 −110−2501.40 68.9%54Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−6.5 −110−2501.40 68.5%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−6.5 −105−2351.43 67.0%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−6.5 −108−2351.43 67.8%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−6.5 −112−2601.38 69.1%54Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−6.5 −115−2601.38 69.1%54Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−6.5 −115−2501.40 67.8%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−6.5 −110−2551.39 69.1%54Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−6.5 −110−2501.40 68.9%54Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−6.5 −106−2551.39 69.1%54Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−6.5 −110−2501.40 68.1%54Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−6.5 −110−2551.39 69.4%54Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.