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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 10:30 PM ET · Final Baylor 55, Arizona State 19

Baylor at Arizona State

Arizona State −4.5 at our first look, −3.5 at kickoff. Big 12 game.

Conditions · Mountain America Stadium: At kickoff: 88°F, wind 6 mph (gusts 14), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Baylor 0.0 · Arizona State 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Baylor.

Landed: Baylor 55, Arizona State 19. Baylor covered the closing line (Arizona State −3.5). The move toward Baylor was right. 74 points, over the closing total of 49.5.

Baylor Bears 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Arizona State Sun Devils 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Arizona State lineArizona State Sun Devils spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Arizona State.
−5−4−3Opening line−4.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+1Closing line−3.5
−5−4−3Opening line−4.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+1Closing line−3.5

Final: Baylor 55, Arizona State 19. Arizona State missed the closing number by 39.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−4.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 1:55 PM ET+1
Closing line−3.5
What moved the Arizona State moneylineArizona State Sun Devils moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Arizona State.
−150−156−163−170Opening line−167Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−153Closing line−152
−150−156−163−170Opening line−167Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−153Closing line−152
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line62.5% (−167)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 1:55 PM ET60.4% (−153)
Closing line60.3% (−152)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
495051Opening line50.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−1Closing line49.5
495051Opening line50.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−1Closing line49.5

Final: 74 points, over the closing total of 49.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line50.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 5:55 PM ET-1
Closing line49.5

Every Book · Arizona State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3.5 −105−1701.59 60.3%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings−3.5 −105−1661.60 60.0%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel−3.5 −106−1601.62 58.8%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM−3.5 −105−1651.61 59.7%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars−3.5 −110−1731.58 60.8%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
Fanatics−3.5 −105−1701.59 60.2%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetRivers−3.5 −114−1861.54 61.7%48.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline−3.5 −105−1701.59 61.1%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada−3.5 +100−1651.61 59.9%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig−3.5 −101−1701.59 61.1%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie−3.5 −110−1731.58 60.3%49.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS−3.5 +100−1701.59 60.8%49.5Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.