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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 12:00 PM ET · Final Boston College 16, SMU 25

Boston College at 24SMU

SMU −20.5 at our first look, −21.5 at kickoff. ACC game.

Conditions · Gerald J. Ford Stadium: At kickoff: 72°F, wind 5 mph, rain.

The read at kickoff

News: Boston College 0.0 · SMU 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward SMU.

Landed: Boston College 16, SMU 25. Boston College covered the closing line (SMU −21.5). The move toward SMU was wrong. 41 points, under the closing total of 55.

Boston College Eagles 0.0

No news that moves the number.

SMU Mustangs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the SMU lineSMU Mustangs spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against SMU.
−22−21−20Opening line−20.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−1Closing line−21.5
−22−21−20Opening line−20.5Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−1Closing line−21.5

Final: Boston College 16, SMU 25. SMU missed the closing number by 12.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−20.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 3:55 PM ET-1
Closing line−21.5
What moved the SMU moneylineSMU Mustangs moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward SMU.
−900−1011Opening line−931Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−931Price-only move−987Closing line−987
−900−1011Opening line−931Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−931Price-only move−987Closing line−987
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line90.3% (−931)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 3:55 PM ET90.3% (−931)
Price-only move90.8% (−987)
Closing line90.8% (−987)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
55565758Opening line57.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−1.5Closing line55
55565758Opening line57.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−1.5Closing line55

Final: 41 points, under the closing total of 55.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line57.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 5:55 PM ET-1.5
Closing line55

Every Book · SMU side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−21.5 −106−17751.06 90.8%55Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−21.5 −105−16501.06 90.8%55.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−21.5 −106−14001.07 89.4%55.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−21 −112−14001.07 90.7%55.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−20.5 −110−17001.06 90.8%56.5Mon 7:55 AM
Fanatics−21.5 −105−15001.07 90.4%55Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−21 −114−20001.05 90.0%55.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−21.5 −104−19001.05 91.3%55Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−21.5 −105−16001.06 89.4%55Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−21.5 −106−19001.05 91.3%55Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−21.5 −110−25491.04 91.4%55Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−21.5 −110−19001.05 91.4%55Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.