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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 7:00 PM ET · Final BYU 17, TCU 10

8BYU at TCU

TCU +5.5 at our first look, +6 at kickoff. Big 12 game.

Conditions · Amon G. Carter Stadium: At kickoff: 72°F, wind 7 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: BYU 0.0 · TCU 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward BYU.

Landed: BYU 17, TCU 10. BYU covered the closing line (TCU +6). The move toward BYU was right. 27 points, under the closing total of 48.5.

BYU Cougars 0.0

No news that moves the number.

TCU Horned Frogs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the TCU lineTCU Horned Frogs spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against TCU.
+5+6+7Opening line+5.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line+6
+5+6+7Opening line+5.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM−0.5Closing line+6

Final: BYU 17, TCU 10. TCU missed the closing number by 1.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+5.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 26, 7:55 PM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsThu Oct 1, 1:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line+6
What moved the TCU moneylineTCU Horned Frogs moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward TCU.
+212+203+194+186+178+170Opening line+175Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+214Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM+190Price-only move+198Closing line+198
+212+203+194+186+178+170Opening line+175Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+214Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM+190Price-only move+198Closing line+198
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line36.3% (+175)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 26, 7:55 PM ET31.8% (+214)
Market move, no reported newsThu Oct 1, 1:55 PM ET34.5% (+190)
Price-only move33.6% (+198)
Closing line33.6% (+198)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
484950515253Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−3.5Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM−0.5Closing line48.5
484950515253Opening line52.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−3.5Market move, no reported newsMon 9:55 AM−0.5Closing line48.5

Final: 27 points, under the closing total of 48.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET-3.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 9:55 AM ET-0.5
Closing line48.5

Every Book · TCU side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+6 −110+1862.86 33.6%48.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings+6 −110+1852.85 33.6%48.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel+5.5 −105+1802.80 34.2%48.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM+6 −108+1852.85 33.6%48.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars+6.5 −117+1872.87 33.3%48.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics+6 −110+1852.85 33.6%48.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers+6 −113+1952.95 32.2%48Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline+6 −114+1862.86 33.7%49Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada+6 −110+1902.90 33.1%49Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig+6 −110+1862.86 33.7%49Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie+6 −110+1902.90 32.8%48.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS+6 −110+1852.85 33.8%48.5Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.