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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 11:00 PM ET · Final Cincinnati 7, Arizona 34

Cincinnati at Arizona

Arizona −7.5 at our first look, −7 at kickoff. Big 12 game.

Conditions · Arizona Stadium: At kickoff: 81°F, wind 13 mph (gusts 29), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Cincinnati 0.0 · Arizona 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward Cincinnati.

Landed: Cincinnati 7, Arizona 34. Arizona covered the closing line (Arizona −7). The move toward Cincinnati was wrong. 41 points, under the closing total of 56.

Cincinnati Bearcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Arizona Wildcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Arizona lineArizona Wildcats spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Arizona.
−8−7Opening line−7.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+0.5Closing line−7
−8−7Opening line−7.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+0.5Closing line−7

Final: Cincinnati 7, Arizona 34. Arizona beat the closing number by 20.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−7.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET+0.5
Closing line−7
What moved the Arizona moneylineArizona Wildcats moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Arizona.
−223−233−245−257Opening line−252Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−233Closing line−229
−223−233−245−257Opening line−252Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−233Closing line−229
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line71.6% (−252)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET70.0% (−233)
Closing line69.6% (−229)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
545556Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM+1Closing line56
545556Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM+1Closing line56

Final: 41 points, under the closing total of 56.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 7:55 PM ET+0.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 1:55 PM ET+1
Closing line56

Every Book · Arizona side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−7 −110−2651.38 69.6%56Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings−7 −108−2651.38 69.6%55.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel−6.5 −120−2601.38 69.1%55.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM−7 −105−2751.36 69.5%56.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars−7 −105−2651.38 69.6%56Sat 9:55 PM
Fanatics−7 −110−2651.38 69.6%55.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetRivers−7 −109−2781.36 69.8%56Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline−7 −110−2651.38 69.8%56Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada−7 −110−2801.36 70.9%56Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig−7 −106−2651.38 69.8%56Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie−7 −110−2751.36 69.9%55.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS−7 −110−2501.40 68.9%56Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.