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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 3:30 PM ET · Final Florida 17, Missouri 45

16Florida at 14Missouri

Missouri +2.5 at our first look, +5.5 at kickoff. SEC game.

Conditions · Memorial Stadium: At kickoff: 72°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Florida 0.0 · Missouri 0.0. Market: moved 3 toward Florida.

Landed: Florida 17, Missouri 45. Missouri covered the closing line (Missouri +5.5). The move toward Florida was wrong. 62 points, over the closing total of 57.5.

Florida Gators 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Missouri Tigers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Missouri lineMissouri Tigers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Missouri.
+2+3+4+5+6Opening line+2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+2Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+1Closing line+5.5
+2+3+4+5+6Opening line+2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+2Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+1Closing line+5.5

Final: Florida 17, Missouri 45. Missouri beat the closing number by 33.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+2.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET+2
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET+1
Closing line+5.5
What moved the Missouri moneylineMissouri Tigers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Missouri.
+186+150+122Opening line+119Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+170Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+201Less than the spread implies+195Closing line+195
+186+150+122Opening line+119Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+170Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+201Less than the spread implies+195Closing line+195
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line45.7% (+119)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET37.0% (+170)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET33.2% (+201)
Less than the spread implies33.9% (+195)
Closing line33.9% (+195)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
535455565758Opening line53.5Market move, no reported newsThu 7:55 PM+2Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+2Closing line57.5
535455565758Opening line53.5Market move, no reported newsThu 7:55 PM+2Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+2Closing line57.5

Final: 62 points, over the closing total of 57.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line53.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 24, 7:55 PM ET+2
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET+2
Closing line57.5

Every Book · Missouri side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+5.5 −110+1802.80 33.9%57.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings+5.5 −110+1802.80 34.3%57.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel+5.5 −110+1802.80 34.2%57.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM+5.5 −105+1852.85 33.6%57.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars+5.5 −113+1782.78 34.6%57.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics+5.5 −110+1852.85 33.6%57.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers+6 −112+1802.80 33.9%57.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline+5.5 −107+1892.89 33.3%58Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada+5.5 −110+1802.80 34.2%57.5Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig+5.5 −103+1892.89 33.3%58Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie+5.5 −110+1802.80 34.0%57.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS+6 −110+1902.90 33.2%58Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.