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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 12:30 PM ET · Final Michigan State 3, Wisconsin 31

Michigan State at Wisconsin

Wisconsin −10.5 at our first look, −8.5 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Camp Randall Stadium: At kickoff: 60°F, wind 10 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Michigan State 0.0 · Wisconsin 0.0. Market: moved 2 toward Michigan State.

Landed: Michigan State 3, Wisconsin 31. Wisconsin covered the closing line (Wisconsin −8.5). The move toward Michigan State was wrong. 34 points, under the closing total of 43.5.

Michigan State Spartans 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Wisconsin Badgers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Wisconsin lineWisconsin Badgers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Wisconsin.
−11−10−9−8Opening line−10.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM+1.5Closing line−8.5
−11−10−9−8Opening line−10.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM+1.5Closing line−8.5

Final: Michigan State 3, Wisconsin 31. Wisconsin beat the closing number by 19.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−10.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 5:55 PM ET+0.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 1:55 PM ET+1.5
Closing line−8.5
What moved the Wisconsin moneylineWisconsin Badgers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Wisconsin.
−285−300−317−335−355−376Opening line−369Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−359Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−289Closing line−295
−285−300−317−335−355−376Opening line−369Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−359Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−289Closing line−295
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line78.7% (−369)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 5:55 PM ET78.2% (−359)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 1:55 PM ET74.3% (−289)
Closing line74.7% (−295)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
434445Opening line44.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−1Closing line43.5
434445Opening line44.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−1Closing line43.5

Final: 34 points, under the closing total of 43.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line44.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 1:55 PM ET-1
Closing line43.5

Every Book · Wisconsin side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.7%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−8.5 −108−3551.28 74.8%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.5%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−8.5 −108−3501.29 75.2%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−8.5 −112−3601.28 74.8%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.5%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−8.5 −110−3451.29 73.1%43Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−9 −109−3501.29 74.7%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−8.5 −110−3701.27 75.2%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−9 −105−3501.29 74.7%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−8 −110−3601.28 74.6%43.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−8 −110−3501.29 74.7%43.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.