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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 12:00 PM ET · Final Michigan 14, Minnesota 20

Michigan at Minnesota

Minnesota +8.5 at our first look, +6.5 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Huntington Bank Stadium: At kickoff: 61°F, wind 15 mph (gusts 31), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Michigan 0.0 · Minnesota 0.0. Market: moved 2 toward Minnesota.

Landed: Michigan 14, Minnesota 20. Minnesota covered the closing line (Minnesota +6.5). The move toward Minnesota was right. 34 points, under the closing total of 42.

Michigan Wolverines 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Minnesota Golden Gophers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Minnesota lineMinnesota Golden Gophers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Minnesota.
+6+7+8+9Opening line+8.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−2Closing line+6.5
+6+7+8+9Opening line+8.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−2Closing line+6.5

Final: Michigan 14, Minnesota 20. Minnesota beat the closing number by 12.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+8.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET-2
Closing line+6.5
What moved the Minnesota moneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Minnesota.
+317+285+257+233+212Opening line+286Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM+312Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+213Price-only move+207Closing line+207
+317+285+257+233+212Opening line+286Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM+312Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+213Price-only move+207Closing line+207
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line25.9% (+286)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 24, 1:55 PM ET24.3% (+312)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET32.0% (+213)
Price-only move32.6% (+207)
Closing line32.6% (+207)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4142434445Opening line44.5Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM−3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+1Closing line42
4142434445Opening line44.5Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM−3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+1Closing line42

Final: 34 points, under the closing total of 42.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line44.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 24, 1:55 PM ET-3.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET+1
Closing line42

Every Book · Minnesota side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+6.5 −110+1952.95 32.6%42Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings+6.5 −110+2003.00 31.9%41.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel+6.5 −110+2023.02 31.7%41.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM+6.5 −110+1952.95 32.6%41.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars+6.5 −112+1922.92 32.8%41.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics+6.5 −110+1902.90 33.0%42Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers+6 −110+1852.85 33.2%42Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline+6.5 −110+1952.95 32.6%42Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada+6.5 −110+2053.05 31.6%42Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig+6.5 −106+1952.95 32.6%42Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie+6 −110+1982.98 32.0%42.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS+6.5 −110+2003.00 32.2%42Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.