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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 12:00 PM ET · Final Navy 9, Air Force 14

Navy at Air Force

Air Force −2.5 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. American Athletic vs. Mountain West.

Conditions · Falcon Stadium: At kickoff: 71°F, wind 10 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Navy 0.0 · Air Force 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward Air Force.

Landed: Navy 9, Air Force 14. Air Force covered the closing line (Air Force −3). The move toward Air Force was right. 23 points, under the closing total of 45.5.

Navy Midshipmen 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Air Force Falcons 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Air Force lineAir Force Falcons spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Air Force.
−4−3−2Opening line−2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−1Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line−3
−4−3−2Opening line−2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−1Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line−3

Final: Navy 9, Air Force 14. Air Force beat the closing number by 2.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−2.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 1:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−3
What moved the Air Force moneylineAir Force Falcons moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Air Force.
−127−138−150−163Opening line−121Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−158Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM−129Closing line−130
−127−138−150−163Opening line−121Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−158Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM−129Closing line−130
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.8% (−121)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET61.3% (−158)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 1:55 PM ET56.3% (−129)
Closing line56.6% (−130)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4546474849Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−3Closing line45.5
4546474849Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM−3Closing line45.5

Final: 23 points, under the closing total of 45.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 1:55 PM ET-3
Closing line45.5

Every Book · Air Force side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −114−1451.69 56.6%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−2.5 −120−1421.70 56.3%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−2.5 −122−1501.67 57.4%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−3 −108−1451.69 56.6%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−2.5 −122−1451.69 56.8%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics−3 −105−1451.69 56.6%46Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−3 −110−1621.62 58.7%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−2.5 −122−1391.72 56.0%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada— —−1401.71 56.2%—Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−2.5 −118−1391.72 56.0%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−3 −110−1501.67 57.1%45.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−3 −105−1401.71 56.2%46Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.