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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 12:00 PM ET · Final Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26

3Notre Dame at North Carolina

North Carolina +20.5 at our first look, +21 at kickoff. FBS Independents vs. ACC.

Conditions · Kenan Stadium: At kickoff: 73°F, wind 9 mph, rain.

The read at kickoff

News: Notre Dame 0.0 · North Carolina 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward Notre Dame.

Landed: Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26. North Carolina covered the closing line (North Carolina +21). The move toward Notre Dame was wrong. 63 points, over the closing total of 46.5.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.0

No news that moves the number.

North Carolina Tar Heels 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the North Carolina lineNorth Carolina Tar Heels spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against North Carolina.
+20+21+22Opening line+20.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−0.5Closing line+21
+20+21+22Opening line+20.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−0.5Closing line+21

Final: Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26. North Carolina beat the closing number by 10.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+20.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 26, 7:55 PM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET-0.5
Closing line+21
What moved the North Carolina moneylineNorth Carolina Tar Heels moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward North Carolina.
+1011+900Opening line+942Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+942Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+942Price-only move+1036Closing line+1036
+1011+900Opening line+942Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM+942Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+942Price-only move+1036Closing line+1036
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line9.6% (+942)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 26, 7:55 PM ET9.6% (+942)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET9.6% (+942)
Price-only move8.8% (+1036)
Closing line8.8% (+1036)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4647484950Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsTue 3:55 PM−1Closing line46.5
4647484950Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSat 7:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsTue 3:55 PM−1Closing line46.5

Final: 63 points, over the closing total of 46.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49.5
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 26, 7:55 PM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 3:55 PM ET-1
Closing line46.5

Every Book · North Carolina side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+21 −110+100011.00 8.8%46.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings+21 −108+100011.00 8.8%46.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel+21.5 −122+100011.00 8.7%46.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM+21 −108+105011.50 8.5%46.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars+21.5 −118+100011.00 8.7%46.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics+21.5 −115+105011.50 8.4%46.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers+21.5 −110+140015.00 6.4%47Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline+21 −110+97910.79 8.9%46.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada+21.5 −115+8509.50 10.0%46.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig+21 −106+97910.79 8.9%46.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie+21 −110+96710.67 9.0%46.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS+21 −110+100011.00 8.8%46.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.