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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Friday, October 2, 8:00 PM ET · Final Penn State 13, Northwestern 34

Penn State at Northwestern

Northwestern +7 at our first look, +3 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium: At kickoff: 57°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Penn State 0.0 · Northwestern 0.0. Market: moved 4 toward Northwestern.

Landed: Penn State 13, Northwestern 34. Northwestern covered the closing line (Northwestern +3). The move toward Northwestern was right. 47 points, push the closing total of 47.

Penn State Nittany Lions 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Northwestern Wildcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Northwestern lineNorthwestern Wildcats spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Northwestern.
+3+4+5+6+7Opening line+7Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−3.5Closing line+3
+3+4+5+6+7Opening line+7Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM−0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−3.5Closing line+3

Final: Penn State 13, Northwestern 34. Northwestern beat the closing number by 24.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+7
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 11:55 AM ET-0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET-3.5
Closing line+3
What moved the Northwestern moneylineNorthwestern Wildcats moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Northwestern.
+233+186+150+122Opening line+239Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+211Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+115Less than the spread implies+135Closing line+135
+233+186+150+122Opening line+239Market move, no reported newsFri 11:55 AM+211Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+115Less than the spread implies+135Closing line+135
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line29.5% (+239)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 11:55 AM ET32.2% (+211)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET46.5% (+115)
Less than the spread implies42.6% (+135)
Closing line42.6% (+135)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
47484950Opening line48.5Market move, no reported newsFri 9:55 PM+1Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−2.5Closing line47
47484950Opening line48.5Market move, no reported newsFri 9:55 PM+1Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−2.5Closing line47

Final: 47 points, exactly on the closing total of 47.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 9:55 PM ET+1
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET-2.5
Closing line47

Every Book · Northwestern side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3 −114+1232.23 42.6%47Fri 7:55 PM
DraftKings+3 −115+1302.30 41.7%47.5Fri 7:55 PM
FanDuel+2.5 −106+1162.16 44.2%46.5Fri 7:55 PM
BetMGM+2.5 −102+1202.20 43.4%47.5Fri 7:55 PM
Caesars+2.5 −102+1232.23 43.1%47Fri 7:55 PM
Fanatics+3 −115+1252.25 42.6%47Fri 7:55 PM
BetRivers+3 −114+1232.23 42.5%47Fri 7:55 PM
BetOnline+3 −115+1302.30 42.0%47Fri 7:55 PM
Bovada+3 −115+1202.20 43.8%47Fri 7:55 PM
LowVig+3 −111+1302.30 42.0%47Fri 7:55 PM
MyBookie+2.5 −105+1162.16 44.1%47Fri 7:55 PM
BetUS+3 −115+1292.29 42.1%47Fri 7:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.