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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 4:15 PM ET · Final Purdue 24, Illinois 17

Purdue at Illinois

Illinois −9.5 at our first look, −9.5 at kickoff. Big Ten game.

Conditions · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL): At kickoff: 72°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Purdue 0.0 · Illinois 0.0. Market: line unchanged.

Landed: Purdue 24, Illinois 17. Purdue covered the closing line (Illinois −9.5). 41 points, under the closing total of 62.

Purdue Boilermakers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Illinois Fighting Illini 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Illinois lineIllinois Fighting Illini spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Illinois.
−10−9Opening line−9.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line−9.5
−10−9Opening line−9.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line−9.5

Final: Purdue 24, Illinois 17. Illinois missed the closing number by 16.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−9.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 PM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsSat Oct 3, 1:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−9.5
What moved the Illinois moneylineIllinois Fighting Illini moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Illinois.
−300−317−335Opening line−313Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 PM−331Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM−313Closing line−308
−300−317−335Opening line−313Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 PM−331Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM−313Closing line−308
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line75.8% (−313)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 PM ET76.8% (−331)
Market move, no reported newsSat Oct 3, 1:55 PM ET75.8% (−313)
Closing line75.5% (−308)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
59606162Opening line59.5Market move, no reported newsMon 7:55 AM+2.5Closing line62
59606162Opening line59.5Market move, no reported newsMon 7:55 AM+2.5Closing line62

Final: 41 points, under the closing total of 62.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line59.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 7:55 AM ET+2.5
Closing line62

Every Book · Illinois side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−9.5 −111−3701.27 75.5%62Sat 3:55 PM
DraftKings−10 −105−3751.27 75.7%62.5Sat 3:55 PM
FanDuel−9.5 −110−3601.28 74.8%62.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetMGM−9.5 −108−3501.29 75.2%62.5Sat 3:55 PM
Caesars−9.5 −117−3901.26 76.3%62Sat 3:55 PM
Fanatics−9.5 −115−3751.27 75.5%62Sat 3:55 PM
BetRivers−9 −112−4001.25 76.0%62.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetOnline−9.5 −115−3651.27 75.5%62Sat 3:55 PM
Bovada−9.5 −115−3901.26 75.9%62Sat 3:55 PM
LowVig−9.5 −111−3651.27 75.5%62Sat 3:55 PM
MyBookie−10 −110−3701.27 74.9%61.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetUS−9.5 −110−3651.27 75.5%62Sat 3:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.