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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 11:59 PM ET · Final San José State 20, Hawai'i 16

San José State at Hawai'i

Hawai'i −3.5 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. Mountain West game.

Conditions · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex: At kickoff: 80°F, wind 11 mph (gusts 28), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: San José State 0.0 · Hawai'i 0.0. Market: moved 0.5 toward San José State.

Landed: San José State 20, Hawai'i 16. San José State covered the closing line (Hawai'i −3). The move toward San José State was right. 36 points, under the closing total of 50.5.

San José State Spartans 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Hawai'i lineHawai'i Rainbow Warriors spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Hawai'i.
−4−3Opening line−3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+0.5Closing line−3
−4−3Opening line−3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+0.5Closing line−3

Final: San José State 20, Hawai'i 16. Hawai'i missed the closing number by 7.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 5:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−3
What moved the Hawai'i moneylineHawai'i Rainbow Warriors moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Hawai'i.
−127−138−150Opening line−149Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−121Less than the spread implies−134Closing line−134
−127−138−150Opening line−149Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−121Less than the spread implies−134Closing line−134
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line59.8% (−149)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 5:55 PM ET54.8% (−121)
Less than the spread implies57.2% (−134)
Closing line57.2% (−134)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
505152535455Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−3Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−1Closing line50.5
505152535455Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−3Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−1Closing line50.5

Final: 36 points, under the closing total of 50.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET-3
Market move, no reported newsThu Oct 1, 5:55 PM ET-1
Closing line50.5

Every Book · Hawai'i side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −108−1481.68 57.2%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings−2.5 −120−1481.68 57.2%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel−2.5 −122−1501.67 57.4%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM−3 −108−1451.69 57.1%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars−2.5 −121−1481.68 57.3%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
Fanatics−3 −105−1501.67 57.4%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetRivers−3 −110−1571.64 57.9%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline−3 −106−1451.69 57.1%51Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada−3 −105−1451.69 57.1%50.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig−3 +101−1451.69 57.1%51Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie−3 −110−1541.65 57.7%51Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS−3 −105−1451.69 57.1%50.5Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.