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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 10:30 PM ET · Final Texas State 29, San Diego State 31

Texas State at San Diego State

San Diego State +3.5 at our first look, +10 at kickoff. Pac-12 game.

Conditions · Snapdragon Stadium: At kickoff: 97°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Texas State 0.0 · San Diego State 0.0. Market: moved 6.5 toward Texas State.

Landed: Texas State 29, San Diego State 31. San Diego State covered the closing line (San Diego State +10). The move toward Texas State was wrong. 60 points, over the closing total of 57.5.

Texas State Bobcats 0.0

No news that moves the number.

San Diego State Aztecs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the San Diego State lineSan Diego State Aztecs spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against San Diego State.
+4+6+8+10Opening line+3.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+6.5Closing line+10
+4+6+8+10Opening line+3.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+6.5Closing line+10

Final: Texas State 29, San Diego State 31. San Diego State beat the closing number by 12.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+3.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET+6.5
Closing line+10
What moved the San Diego State moneylineSan Diego State Aztecs moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward San Diego State.
+400+300+233+186+150Opening line+153Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+424Less than the spread implies+308Closing line+308
+400+300+233+186+150Opening line+153Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+424Less than the spread implies+308Closing line+308
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line39.5% (+153)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET19.1% (+424)
Less than the spread implies24.5% (+308)
Closing line24.5% (+308)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
57585960Opening line59.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−1Closing line57.5
57585960Opening line59.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−1Closing line57.5

Final: 60 points, over the closing total of 57.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line59.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 PM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 5:55 PM ET-1
Closing line57.5

Every Book · San Diego State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+10 −110+2923.92 24.5%57.5Sat 9:55 PM
DraftKings+9.5 −105+2953.95 24.3%57.5Sat 9:55 PM
FanDuel+9.5 −105+2703.70 25.8%57.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetMGM+9 −110+2903.90 24.8%57.5Sat 9:55 PM
Caesars+9.5 −106+2953.95 24.2%57.5Sat 9:55 PM
Fanatics+10 −110+2903.90 24.5%57.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetRivers+10.5 −115+3404.40 21.5%57.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetOnline+10 −110+2923.92 24.5%58Sat 9:55 PM
Bovada+10 −110+2953.95 24.1%57.5Sat 9:55 PM
LowVig+10 −106+2923.92 24.5%58Sat 9:55 PM
MyBookie+10 −110+2803.80 25.1%57.5Sat 9:55 PM
BetUS+10 −115+2933.93 24.5%57.5Sat 9:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.