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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 2:00 PM ET · Final Toledo 39, Ball State 24

Toledo at Ball State

Ball State +16.5 at our first look, +20.5 at kickoff. Mid-American game.

Conditions · Scheumann Stadium: At kickoff: 65°F, wind 9 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Toledo 0.0 · Ball State 0.0. Market: moved 4 toward Toledo.

Landed: Toledo 39, Ball State 24. Ball State covered the closing line (Ball State +20.5). The move toward Toledo was wrong. 63 points, over the closing total of 52.5.

Toledo Rockets 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Ball State Cardinals 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Ball State lineBall State Cardinals spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Ball State.
+16+17+18+19+20+21Opening line+16.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+3Market move, no reported newsThu 11:55 AM+1Closing line+20.5
+16+17+18+19+20+21Opening line+16.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+3Market move, no reported newsThu 11:55 AM+1Closing line+20.5

Final: Toledo 39, Ball State 24. Ball State beat the closing number by 5.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+16.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET+3
Market move, no reported newsThu Oct 1, 11:55 AM ET+1
Closing line+20.5
What moved the Ball State moneylineBall State Cardinals moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Ball State.
+900+809+733+669Opening line+675Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+675Market move, no reported newsThu 11:55 AM+675Price-only move+843Closing line+843
+900+809+733+669Opening line+675Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+675Market move, no reported newsThu 11:55 AM+675Price-only move+843Closing line+843
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line12.9% (+675)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET12.9% (+675)
Market move, no reported newsThu Oct 1, 11:55 AM ET12.9% (+675)
Price-only move10.6% (+843)
Closing line10.6% (+843)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
515253Opening line51.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM+1Closing line52.5
515253Opening line51.5Market move, no reported newsTue 1:55 PM+1Closing line52.5

Final: 63 points, over the closing total of 52.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 1:55 PM ET+1
Closing line52.5

Every Book · Ball State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+20.5 −110+8009.00 10.6%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings+20.5 −108+7508.50 11.3%53.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel+20.5 −110+8109.10 10.5%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM+20.5 −108+8509.50 10.2%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars+19.5 −109+8009.00 10.6%51.5Wed 7:55 PM
Fanatics+20.5 −110+8509.50 10.1%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers+21 −117+115012.50 7.6%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline+21 −117+7768.76 11.0%53Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada+21 −115+8009.00 10.6%53Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig+21 −113+7768.76 11.0%53Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie+20.5 −110+7708.70 11.0%52.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS+21 −110+8009.00 10.7%53Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.