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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 7:00 PM ET · Final UL Monroe 35, South Alabama 52

UL Monroe at South Alabama

South Alabama −14.5 at our first look, −13.5 at kickoff. Sun Belt game.

Conditions · Hancock Whitney Stadium: At kickoff: 76°F, wind 6 mph, rain.

The read at kickoff

News: UL Monroe 0.0 · South Alabama 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward UL Monroe.

Landed: UL Monroe 35, South Alabama 52. South Alabama covered the closing line (South Alabama −13.5). The move toward UL Monroe was wrong. 87 points, over the closing total of 56.5.

UL Monroe Warhawks 0.0

No news that moves the number.

South Alabama Jaguars 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the South Alabama lineSouth Alabama Jaguars spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against South Alabama.
−15−14−13Opening line−14.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line−13.5
−15−14−13Opening line−14.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line−13.5

Final: UL Monroe 35, South Alabama 52. South Alabama beat the closing number by 3.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−14.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 7:55 PM ET+0.5
Market move, no reported newsSat Oct 3, 1:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−13.5
What moved the South Alabama moneylineSouth Alabama Jaguars moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward South Alabama.
−426−456−488−525−567Opening line−558Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−558Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM−537Price-only move−446Closing line−446
−426−456−488−525−567Opening line−558Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:55 PM−558Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM−537Price-only move−446Closing line−446
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line84.8% (−558)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 7:55 PM ET84.8% (−558)
Market move, no reported newsSat Oct 3, 1:55 PM ET84.3% (−537)
Price-only move81.7% (−446)
Closing line81.7% (−446)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
54555657Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+1Closing line56.5
54555657Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+1Closing line56.5

Final: 87 points, over the closing total of 56.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 5:55 PM ET+1
Closing line56.5

Every Book · South Alabama side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−13.5 −110−5751.17 81.7%56.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−13.5 −110−5751.17 81.7%56.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−13.5 −110−5801.17 81.6%56.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−13.5 −112−5501.18 81.6%56.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−14 −106−6751.15 83.4%55.5Mon 7:55 AM
Fanatics−13.5 −110−5751.17 81.7%56.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers−13.5 −110−6701.15 82.5%56.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−13 −112−5751.17 81.9%56.5Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−13.5 −105−5751.17 81.0%56.5Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−13 −110−5751.17 81.9%56.5Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−13.5 −110−5491.18 80.9%57Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−13.5 −110−6001.17 82.5%56.5Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.