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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 7:30 PM ET · Final Utah State 18, Boise State 37

Utah State at 23Boise State

Boise State −20.5 at our first look, −19 at kickoff. Pac-12 game.

Conditions · Albertsons Stadium: At kickoff: 86°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Utah State 0.0 · Boise State 0.0. Market: moved 1.5 toward Utah State.

Landed: Utah State 18, Boise State 37. A push at the closing line (Boise State −19). The move toward Utah State was right. 55 points, over the closing total of 51.5.

Utah State Aggies 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Boise State Broncos 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Boise State lineBoise State Broncos spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Boise State.
−21−20−19Opening line−20.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+1.5Closing line−19
−21−20−19Opening line−20.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+1.5Closing line−19

Final: Utah State 18, Boise State 37. Boise State landed on the closing number.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−20.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET+1.5
Closing line−19
What moved the Boise State moneylineBoise State Broncos moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Boise State.
−900−1011−1150Opening line−1076Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−1076Price-only move−890Closing line−890
−900−1011−1150Opening line−1076Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−1076Price-only move−890Closing line−890
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line91.5% (−1076)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET91.5% (−1076)
Price-only move89.9% (−890)
Closing line89.9% (−890)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
49505152Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+1.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+0.5Closing line51.5
49505152Opening line49.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 PM+1.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+0.5Closing line51.5

Final: 55 points, over the closing total of 51.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 1:55 PM ET+1.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET+0.5
Closing line51.5

Every Book · Boise State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−19 −110−14421.07 89.9%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−19.5 −110−14501.07 89.9%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−19.5 −110−17001.06 90.3%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−19 −110−14001.07 90.7%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−19.5 −105−14501.07 89.9%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics−19 −110−13001.08 89.3%51Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers−18.5 −114−25001.04 91.0%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−19 −116−14001.07 89.7%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−19 −110−13001.08 88.5%51Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−19 −112−14001.07 89.7%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−19.5 −110−14421.07 89.1%51.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−19.5 −110−15001.07 89.9%51.5Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.