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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 12:00 PM ET · Final West Virginia 42, Iowa State 45

West Virginia at Iowa State

Iowa State +2.5 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. Big 12 game.

Conditions · Jack Trice Stadium: At kickoff: 62°F, wind 14 mph (gusts 26), dry.

The read at kickoff

News: West Virginia 0.0 · Iowa State 0.0. Market: moved 5.5 toward Iowa State.

Landed: West Virginia 42, Iowa State 45. A push at the closing line (Iowa State −3). The move toward Iowa State was right. 87 points, over the closing total of 53.

West Virginia Mountaineers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Iowa State Cyclones 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Iowa State lineIowa State Cyclones spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Iowa State.
−3−2−1PK+1+2+3Opening line+2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−5.5Closing line−3
−2PK+2Opening line+2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−5.5Closing line−3

Final: West Virginia 42, Iowa State 45. Iowa State landed on the closing number.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+2.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET-5.5
Closing line−3
What moved the Iowa State moneylineIowa State Cyclones moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Iowa State.
−100−122−150Opening line+107Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−150Less than the spread implies−135Closing line−135
−100−122−150Opening line+107Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:55 AM−150Less than the spread implies−135Closing line−135
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.3% (+107)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 11:55 AM ET60.0% (−150)
Less than the spread implies57.4% (−135)
Closing line57.4% (−135)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5253Opening line52.5Market move, no reported newsTue 3:55 PM+0.5Closing line53
5253Opening line52.5Market move, no reported newsTue 3:55 PM+0.5Closing line53

Final: 87 points, over the closing total of 53.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 3:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line53

Every Book · Iowa State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −110−1501.67 57.4%53Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−3 −108−1551.65 58.3%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−2.5 −124−1561.64 58.4%52.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−3 −110−1501.67 57.4%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−2.5 −124−1501.67 57.6%53Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics−3 −110−1501.67 57.4%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−3 −110−1621.62 58.7%53.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−3 −113−1451.69 57.1%53Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−3 −110−1501.67 58.0%53Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−2.5 −117−1451.69 57.1%53Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−3 −110−1471.68 56.7%53Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−3 −110−1451.69 57.1%53.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.