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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 3:30 PM ET · Final Wyoming 0, North Dakota State 28

Wyoming at North Dakota State

North Dakota State −20.5 at our first look, −17 at kickoff. Mountain West game.

Conditions · Fargodome: Indoors.

The read at kickoff

News: Wyoming 0.0 · North Dakota State 0.0. Market: moved 3.5 toward Wyoming.

Landed: Wyoming 0, North Dakota State 28. North Dakota State covered the closing line (North Dakota State −17). The move toward Wyoming was wrong. 28 points, under the closing total of 44.

Wyoming Cowboys 0.0

No news that moves the number.

North Dakota State Bison 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the North Dakota State lineNorth Dakota State Bison spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against North Dakota State.
−21−20−19−18−17Opening line−20.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+2Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 AM+1.5Closing line−17
−21−20−19−18−17Opening line−20.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM+2Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 AM+1.5Closing line−17

Final: Wyoming 0, North Dakota State 28. North Dakota State beat the closing number by 11.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−20.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 5:55 PM ET+2
Market move, no reported newsThu Oct 1, 5:55 AM ET+1.5
Closing line−17
What moved the North Dakota State moneylineNorth Dakota State Bison moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward North Dakota State.
−669−733−809−900−1011Opening line−1024Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−1024Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 AM−1024Price-only move−675Closing line−675
−669−733−809−900−1011Opening line−1024Reaction to last week's gameSun 5:55 PM−1024Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 AM−1024Price-only move−675Closing line−675
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line91.1% (−1024)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 5:55 PM ET91.1% (−1024)
Market move, no reported newsThu Oct 1, 5:55 AM ET91.1% (−1024)
Price-only move87.1% (−675)
Closing line87.1% (−675)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4445464748Opening line47.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsThu 9:55 PM−1.5Closing line44
4445464748Opening line47.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−2Market move, no reported newsThu 9:55 PM−1.5Closing line44

Final: 28 points, under the closing total of 44.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line47.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 3:55 PM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsThu Oct 1, 9:55 PM ET-1.5
Closing line44

Every Book · North Dakota State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−17 −110−9751.10 87.1%44Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−17.5 −110−9501.11 86.8%44.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−17.5 −105−10001.10 87.1%44.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−17 −112−9001.11 87.1%44.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−18.5 −114−14501.07 89.4%45.5Mon 7:55 AM
Fanatics−17 −110−9501.11 87.2%44Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−17 −107−12501.08 88.1%43.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−17 −118−8501.12 86.0%44Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−17 −105−11001.09 87.3%44Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−17 −114−8501.12 86.0%44Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−17 −110−10001.10 86.7%44.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−17 −105−10001.10 87.2%44Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.