College football · Week 7 · Saturday, October 17, 12:00 PM ET · Final Florida 27, Texas 24
20Florida at 19Texas
Texas −9.5 at our first look, −13 at kickoff. SEC game. Team pages: Florida · Texas
Conditions · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium: Forecast 59°F, wind 11 mph, 0% chance of rain. At kickoff: 60°F, wind 8 mph, dry.
The read at kickoff
News: Florida +0.7 · Texas 0.0 → favors Florida by 0.7. Market: moved 3.5 toward Texas. Never priced in
Landed: Florida 27, Texas 24. Florida covered the closing line (Texas −13). The move toward Texas was wrong. 51 points, under the closing total of 51.5.
Florida Gators +0.7
| QB Tramell Jones Jr. On3, Thu 4:26 PM: Named starter (for Philo) |
Named starter | +2.4 |
| QB Aaron Philo Yahoo Sports, Sat 11:04 AM: Questionable |
Questionable | −1.7 |
Texas Longhorns 0.0
No news that moves the number.
Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.
Line Movement
Final: Florida 27, Texas 24. Texas missed the closing number by 16.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | −9.5 | |
| Market move, no reported news | Fri Oct 9, 8:23 PM ET | +0.5 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sat Oct 10, 9:25 PM ET | -1.5 |
| Florida QB Philo limited in practice, uncertain for Texas trip | Wed Oct 14, 12:15 PM ET | -0.5 |
| Jones Jr. set for first career start at QB for Florida at Texas | Sat Oct 17, 11:39 AM ET | -1.2 |
| Florida lists Philo, Brown among game-time calls at Texas; Clark out | Sat Oct 17, 11:39 AM ET | -0.8 |
| Closing line | −13 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 74.8% (−297) | |
| Market move, no reported news | Fri Oct 9, 8:23 PM ET | 72.4% (−262) |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sat Oct 10, 9:25 PM ET | 76.3% (−322) |
| Florida QB Philo limited in practice, uncertain for Texas trip | Wed Oct 14, 12:15 PM ET | 77.1% (−337) |
| Jones Jr. set for first career start at QB for Florida at Texas | Sat Oct 17, 11:39 AM ET | 80.3% (−408) |
| Florida lists Philo, Brown among game-time calls at Texas; Clark out | Sat Oct 17, 11:39 AM ET | 82.6% (−475) |
| Less than the spread implies | 80.8% (−421) | |
| Closing line | 80.8% (−421) |
Final: 51 points, under the closing total of 51.5.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 55.5 | |
| Market move, no reported news | Tue Oct 6, 5:13 PM ET | -3 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sat Oct 10, 9:15 PM ET | -1 |
| Closing line | 51.5 |
Notes
Texas pass rusher Simmons helped off with leg injury vs Florida
Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons was helped off the field early in the fourth quarter against Florida with an apparent lower leg injury. His status going forward, including next week against Ole Miss, is unclear. On3
Florida receiver Stockton leaves Texas game with ankle injury
Florida wideout Bailey Stockton exited the game at Texas after a non-contact ankle injury. It thins an already depleted Gators receiving group around first-time starting quarterback Jones. Saturday Down South
Florida lists Philo, Brown among game-time calls at Texas; Clark out
Quarterback Aaron Philo, receiver Vernell Brown III and Bailey Stockton are game-time decisions for Florida at Texas, while Duke Clark will not play. Philo's status matters as the backup behind first-time starter Jones, and Brown's absence would thin the receiving corps. Yahoo Sports
Line moves 1.5 toward Texas ahead of the news
The consensus spread on Florida at Texas has moved from −11.5 to −13 (home side), with 11 of 11 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The market started moving 1h 26m before the report: Florida lists Philo, Brown among game-time calls at Texas; Clark out.
Line moves 2 toward Texas ahead of the news
The consensus spread on Florida at Texas has moved from −11 to −13 (home side), with 11 of 11 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The market started moving 2h 09m before the report: Florida lists Philo, Brown among game-time calls at Texas; Clark out.
Philo travels with Florida but Jones set to start at Texas
Injured Florida quarterback Aaron Philo is making the trip to Austin, though Jones Jr. remains in line for the start. Several Gators playmakers are game-time decisions for the Texas matchup. Yahoo Sports
Jones Jr. set for first career start at QB for Florida at Texas
Florida is preparing sophomore quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. to make his first career start at Texas, with starter Philo's availability in doubt. An inexperienced quarterback in a hostile road environment is a significant factor for the matchup. On3
Florida QB Philo limited in practice, uncertain for Texas trip
Florida starting quarterback Aaron Philo has been limited in practice this week and is considered questionable for Saturday's game at Texas. If he cannot play, Tramell Jones would start in his place. On3
Line moves 2 toward Texas after last week's results
The consensus spread on Florida at Texas has moved from −8.5 to −10.5 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
Line moves 1 toward Florida with no reported news
The consensus spread on Florida at Texas has moved from −9.5 to −8.5 (home side), with 1 of 3 books moving the same way. Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.
Every Book · Texas side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | −13 | −110 | −550 | 1.18 | 80.8% | 51.5 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| DraftKings | −13.5 | −105 | −535 | 1.19 | 80.8% | 51.5 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| FanDuel | −13.5 | −105 | −530 | 1.19 | 80.5% | 51.5 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| BetMGM | −13 | −110 | −525 | 1.19 | 80.8% | 51.5 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| Caesars | −13 | −115 | −530 | 1.19 | 80.8% | 52 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| Fanatics | −13 | −110 | −525 | 1.19 | 80.5% | 51.5 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| BetRivers | −13.5 | −113 | −560 | 1.18 | 80.6% | 51.5 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| BetOnline | −13 | −110 | −550 | 1.18 | 81.3% | 52 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| Bovada | −13 | −110 | −550 | 1.18 | 80.6% | 52 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| LowVig | −13 | −106 | −550 | 1.18 | 81.3% | 52 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| MyBookie | −13 | −110 | −561 | 1.18 | 80.9% | 51 | Sat 11:55 AM |
| BetUS | −13 | −115 | −550 | 1.18 | 81.6% | 52 | Sat 11:55 AM |
College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.