College football · Week 8 · Saturday, October 24, 3:30 PM ET · Final Michigan State 10, UCLA 28
Michigan State at 9UCLA
UCLA −13.5 at our first look, −16.5 at kickoff. Big Ten game. Team pages: Michigan State · UCLA
Conditions · Rose Bowl: Forecast 73°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain. At kickoff: 74°F, wind 6 mph, dry.
The read at kickoff
News: Michigan State −1.4 · UCLA −0.5 → favors UCLA by 0.9. Market: moved 3 toward UCLA. Moved past our number
Landed: Michigan State 10, UCLA 28. UCLA covered the closing line (UCLA −16.5). The move toward UCLA was right. 38 points, under the closing total of 43.5.
Michigan State Spartans −1.4
| QB Alessio Milivojevic On3, Sat 9:18 AM: Out |
Out | −1.4 |
UCLA Bruins −0.5
| QB Nico Iamaleava CBS Sports, Tue 2:06 PM: Out for season |
Out for season | −0.5 |
Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.
Line Movement
Final: Michigan State 10, UCLA 28. UCLA beat the closing number by 1.5.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | −13.5 | |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 18, 4:35 PM ET | -0.5 |
| Michigan State QB Milivojevic uncertain for UCLA trip | Wed Oct 21, 8:26 PM ET | -1 |
| Milivojevic out at UCLA; third-stringer Coffman to start for Spartans | Sat Oct 24, 9:21 AM ET | -1.5 |
| Closing line | −16.5 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 80.8% (−421) | |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 18, 4:35 PM ET | 81.3% (−435) |
| Michigan State QB Milivojevic uncertain for UCLA trip | Wed Oct 21, 8:26 PM ET | 81.3% (−435) |
| Milivojevic out at UCLA; third-stringer Coffman to start for Spartans | Sat Oct 24, 9:21 AM ET | 81.3% (−435) |
| Price-only move | 85.5% (−590) | |
| Closing line | 85.5% (−590) |
Final: 38 points, under the closing total of 43.5.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 47.5 | |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 18, 3:33 PM ET | -3 |
| Market move, no reported news | Wed Oct 21, 8:57 PM ET | -1 |
| Closing line | 43.5 |
Notes
UCLA QB Dieffenbach hurt late in first half vs Michigan State
Ty Dieffenbach was injured just before halftime against Michigan State and was attended to by trainers. With Nico Iamaleava already out for the season, UCLA would turn to its third-string quarterback if Dieffenbach cannot continue. On3
Total drops 1.5 for Michigan State at UCLA
The consensus total on Michigan State at UCLA has moved from 44.5 to 43, with 11 of 11 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The move followed the report: Milivojevic out at UCLA; third-stringer Coffman to start for Spartans.
Line moves 1.5 on the news: Milivojevic out at UCLA; third-stringer Coffman to start for Spartans
The consensus spread on Michigan State at UCLA has moved from −15 to −16.5 (home side), with 11 of 11 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The move followed the report: Milivojevic out at UCLA; third-stringer Coffman to start for Spartans.
Milivojevic out at UCLA; third-stringer Coffman to start for Spartans
Michigan State starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic is not expected to play Saturday at UCLA because of an undisclosed issue. The Spartans are set to turn to third-string quarterback Kayd Coffman, a major downgrade at the position for a road game against a ranked opponent. On3
Line moves 2 toward UCLA ahead of the news
The consensus spread on Michigan State at UCLA has moved from −14.5 to −16.5 (home side). The market started moving 0h 25m before the report: Milivojevic out at UCLA; third-stringer Coffman to start for Spartans.
Line moves 2 toward UCLA with no reported news
The consensus spread on Michigan State at UCLA has moved from −14.5 to −16.5 (home side), with 11 of 11 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.
Line moves 1.5 toward UCLA with no reported news
The consensus spread on Michigan State at UCLA has moved from −15 to −16.5 (home side), with 11 of 11 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.
Michigan State QB Milivojevic uncertain for UCLA trip
Michigan State listed starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic on its availability report ahead of Saturday's game at UCLA. His status is unsettled, which would force a change under center if he cannot go. Yahoo Sports
UCLA quarterback Iamaleava lost to ACL tear
UCLA starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava has a torn ACL, ending his season. The Bruins must turn to a backup starting with Saturday's home game against Michigan State. CBS Sports
Total drops 3 for Michigan State at UCLA after last week's results
The consensus total on Michigan State at UCLA has moved from 47.5 to 44.5, with 7 of 7 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
Every Book · UCLA side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | −16.5 | −110 | −800 | 1.12 | 85.5% | 43.5 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| DraftKings | −16.5 | −112 | −800 | 1.12 | 85.2% | 43.5 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| FanDuel | −16.5 | −110 | −880 | 1.11 | 85.9% | 43.5 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| BetMGM | −16.5 | −110 | −750 | 1.13 | 85.6% | 43.5 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| Caesars | −16.5 | −106 | −800 | 1.12 | 84.7% | 43.5 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| Fanatics | −16.5 | −115 | −800 | 1.12 | 85.2% | 43.5 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| BetRivers | −17 | −108 | −1000 | 1.10 | 86.4% | 43.5 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| BetOnline | −16.5 | −115 | −800 | 1.12 | 85.5% | 44 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| Bovada | −16.5 | −115 | −800 | 1.12 | 84.7% | 43.5 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| LowVig | −16.5 | −111 | −800 | 1.12 | 85.5% | 44 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| MyBookie | −17 | −110 | −1037 | 1.10 | 86.8% | 43.5 | Sat 3:26 PM |
| BetUS | −16.5 | −110 | −800 | 1.12 | 85.2% | 44 | Sat 3:26 PM |
College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.