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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 1 · Early Edition

College football · Week 1 · Sunday, September 6, 7:30 PM ET · Final Louisville 38, Ole Miss 41

Louisville at 9Ole Miss

Ole Miss −6.5 at our first look, −6.5 at kickoff. ACC vs. SEC at a neutral site.

Conditions · Nissan Stadium: At kickoff: 89°F, wind 12 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Louisville 0.0 · Ole Miss 0.0. Market: line unchanged.

Landed: Louisville 38, Ole Miss 41. Louisville covered the closing line (Ole Miss −6.5). 79 points, over the closing total of 55.

Louisville Cardinals 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Ole Miss Rebels 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Ole Miss lineOle Miss Rebels spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Ole Miss.

−6.5 no movement since tracking began Sun 9:55 AM ET.

What moved the Ole Miss moneylineOle Miss Rebels moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Ole Miss.
−213−223Opening line−215Price-only move−225Closing line−225
−213−223Opening line−215Price-only move−225Closing line−225
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line68.3% (−215)
Price-only move69.2% (−225)
Closing line69.2% (−225)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5556Opening line55.5Market move, no reported newsFri 7:55 PM−0.5Closing line55
5556Opening line55.5Market move, no reported newsFri 7:55 PM−0.5Closing line55

Final: 79 points, over the closing total of 55.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line55.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 4, 7:55 PM ET-0.5
Closing line55

Every Book · Ole Miss side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−6.5 −115−2591.39 69.2%55Sun 5:55 PM
DraftKings−6.5 −115−2581.39 69.1%55.5Sun 5:55 PM
FanDuel−6.5 −118−2601.38 69.5%55.5Sun 5:55 PM
BetMGM−7 −105−2751.36 69.5%55.5Sun 5:55 PM
Caesars−6.5 −117−2651.38 69.2%55.5Sun 5:55 PM
Fanatics−6.5 −120−2551.39 68.7%55Sun 5:55 PM
BetRivers−6.5 −115−2501.40 67.8%55Sun 5:55 PM
BetOnline−6.5 −115−2551.39 69.1%55Sun 5:55 PM
Bovada−6.5 −120−2601.38 69.5%55Sun 5:55 PM
MyBookie−6.5 −110−2651.38 69.2%55Sun 5:55 PM
BetUS−6.5 −115−2521.40 69.1%55Sun 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.