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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 6:00 PM ET · Final Buffalo 20, Florida International 33

Buffalo at Florida International

Florida International −7.5 at our first look, −8.5 at kickoff. Mid-American vs. Conference USA.

Conditions · Pitbull Stadium: At kickoff: 80°F, wind 4 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Buffalo 0.0 · Florida International 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Florida International.

Landed: Buffalo 20, Florida International 33. Florida International covered the closing line (Florida International −8.5). The move toward Florida International was right. 53 points, over the closing total of 47.5.

Buffalo Bulls 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Florida International Panthers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Florida International lineFlorida International Panthers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Florida International.
−11−10−9−8−7Opening line−7.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 AM−3Market move, no reported newsThu 9:55 PM+2Closing line−8.5
−11−10−9−8−7Opening line−7.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 AM−3Market move, no reported newsThu 9:55 PM+2Closing line−8.5

Final: Buffalo 20, Florida International 33. Florida International beat the closing number by 4.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−7.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 3:55 AM ET-3
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 10, 9:55 PM ET+2
Closing line−8.5
What moved the Florida International moneylineFlorida International Panthers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Florida International.
−257−285−317−355−400Opening line−261Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 AM−388Market move, no reported newsThu 9:55 PM−303Less than the spread implies−292Closing line−292
−257−285−317−355−400Opening line−261Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 AM−388Market move, no reported newsThu 9:55 PM−303Less than the spread implies−292Closing line−292
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line72.3% (−261)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 3:55 AM ET79.5% (−388)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 10, 9:55 PM ET75.2% (−303)
Less than the spread implies74.5% (−292)
Closing line74.5% (−292)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
4748495051Opening line50.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 AM−3Closing line47.5
4748495051Opening line50.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 AM−3Closing line47.5

Final: 53 points, over the closing total of 47.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line50.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 3:55 AM ET-3
Closing line47.5

Every Book · Florida International side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−8.5 −110−3501.29 74.5%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−8.5 −105−3451.29 74.4%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−8.5 −110−3351.30 73.8%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−8 −110−3501.29 74.5%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−8.5 −109−3601.28 74.8%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics−8.5 −110−3751.27 75.5%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers−9 −110−4001.25 75.2%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−8 −110−3401.29 74.3%48Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−8 −110−3601.28 74.8%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−8 −106−3401.29 74.3%48Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−8.5 −110−3601.28 74.6%47.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−8 −110−3301.30 74.0%48Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.