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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 2 · Early Edition

College football · Week 2 · Saturday, September 12, 3:30 PM ET · Final Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13

17Mississippi State at Minnesota

Minnesota −2.5 at our first look, +1 at kickoff. SEC vs. Big Ten.

Conditions · Huntington Bank Stadium: At kickoff: 74°F, wind 11 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Mississippi State 0.0 · Minnesota 0.0. Market: moved 3.5 toward Mississippi State.

Landed: Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13. Mississippi State covered the closing line (Minnesota +1). The move toward Mississippi State was right. 51 points, under the closing total of 54.5.

Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Minnesota Golden Gophers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Minnesota lineMinnesota Golden Gophers spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Minnesota.
−3−2−1PK+1Opening line−2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+3.5Closing line+1
−3−2−1PK+1Opening line−2.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+3.5Closing line+1

Final: Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13. Minnesota missed the closing number by 24.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−2.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET+3.5
Closing line+1
What moved the Minnesota moneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Minnesota.
+127+117+108−100−108Opening line−107Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+123Less than the spread implies+104Closing line+104
+127+117+108−100−108Opening line−107Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+123Less than the spread implies+104Closing line+104
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.7% (−107)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET44.8% (+123)
Less than the spread implies49.0% (+104)
Closing line49.0% (+104)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5152535455Opening line51.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+1Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+2Closing line54.5
5152535455Opening line51.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+1Reaction to last week's gameSun 1:55 AM+2Closing line54.5

Final: 51 points, under the closing total of 54.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.5
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 5, 1:55 PM ET+1
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 6, 1:55 AM ET+2
Closing line54.5

Every Book · Minnesota side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+1 −110−1051.95 49.0%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings+1.5 −115−1051.95 48.9%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel+1.5 −122−1101.91 50.0%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM+1 −110−1051.95 49.2%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
CaesarsPK −110−1101.91 50.0%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics+1 −110−1051.95 48.9%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−0.5 −114−1141.88 50.5%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnlinePK −106—— —54.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada+1 −110−1051.95 48.9%55Sat 1:55 PM
LowVigPK −102—— —54.5Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie+1.5 −110−1061.94 49.0%54.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS+1 −110+1002.00 47.8%54.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.