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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 12:00 PM ET · Final Buffalo 13, Penn State 55

Buffalo at Penn State

Penn State −39.5 at our first look, −39.5 at kickoff. Mid-American vs. Big Ten.

Conditions · Beaver Stadium: At kickoff: 64°F, wind 6 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Buffalo 0.0 · Penn State 0.0. Market: line unchanged.

Landed: Buffalo 13, Penn State 55. Penn State covered the closing line (Penn State −39.5). 68 points, over the closing total of 48.

Buffalo Bulls 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Penn State Nittany Lions 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Penn State linePenn State Nittany Lions spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Penn State.
−40−39−38Opening line−39.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−1Closing line−39.5
−40−39−38Opening line−39.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 PM+1Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−1Closing line−39.5

Final: Buffalo 13, Penn State 55. Penn State beat the closing number by 2.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−39.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 9:55 PM ET+1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 11:55 AM ET-1
Closing line−39.5
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
474849Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+0.5Closing line48
474849Opening line48.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−1Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM+0.5Closing line48

Final: 68 points, over the closing total of 48.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 3:55 PM ET-1
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 11:55 AM ET+0.5
Closing line48

Every Book · Penn State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−39.5 −110—— —48Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−39.5 −108—— —48.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−39.5 −110—— —47.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−39 −110—— —48.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−39.5 −112—— —48.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics−39.5 −110—— —48Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−40 −112—— —48.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−40 −102—— —48Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−40 −105—— —48Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−40 +102—— —48Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−39.5 −110—— —48Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.