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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 4:15 PM ET · Final Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34

17Mississippi State at South Carolina

South Carolina −7.5 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. SEC game.

Conditions · Williams-Brice Stadium: At kickoff: 88°F, wind 4 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Mississippi State 0.0 · South Carolina 0.0. Market: moved 4.5 toward Mississippi State.

Landed: Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34. Mississippi State covered the closing line (South Carolina −3). The move toward Mississippi State was right. 75 points, over the closing total of 59.

Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

South Carolina Gamecocks 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the South Carolina lineSouth Carolina Gamecocks spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against South Carolina.
−8−7−6−5−4−3Opening line−7.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+4Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+0.5Closing line−3
−8−7−6−5−4−3Opening line−7.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+4Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM+0.5Closing line−3

Final: Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34. South Carolina missed the closing number by 10.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−7.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 9:55 AM ET+4
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 3:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line−3
What moved the South Carolina moneylineSouth Carolina Gamecocks moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward South Carolina.
−122−150−186−233Opening line−255Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−139Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−114Less than the spread implies−146Closing line−146
−122−150−186−233Opening line−255Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−139Market move, no reported newsMon 3:55 PM−114Less than the spread implies−146Closing line−146
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line71.8% (−255)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 9:55 AM ET58.2% (−139)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 3:55 PM ET53.2% (−114)
Less than the spread implies59.4% (−146)
Closing line59.4% (−146)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
545556575859Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+4Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line59
545556575859Opening line54.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+4Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM+0.5Closing line59

Final: 75 points, over the closing total of 59.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line54.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 13, 9:55 AM ET+4
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 14, 1:55 PM ET+0.5
Closing line59

Every Book · South Carolina side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −111−1621.62 59.4%59Sat 3:55 PM
DraftKings−3 −118−1621.62 59.3%59.5Sat 3:55 PM
FanDuel−3.5 −102−1621.62 58.9%59.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetMGM−3.5 −102−1601.62 59.1%59.5Sat 3:55 PM
Caesars−3 −117−1701.59 60.2%59.5Sat 3:55 PM
BetRivers−3.5 −109−1771.56 60.5%59Sat 3:55 PM
BetOnline−3 −115−1601.62 59.6%59Sat 3:55 PM
Bovada−3.5 −105−1701.59 60.7%59Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−3 −111−1601.62 59.6%59Sat 3:55 PM
MyBookie−3 −110−1661.60 59.4%59Sat 3:55 PM
BetUS−3 −115−1601.62 59.4%59Sat 3:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.