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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 3 · Early Edition

College football · Week 3 · Saturday, September 19, 3:30 PM ET · Final SMU 31, Louisville 41

24SMU at Louisville

Louisville −1.5 at our first look, −2.5 at kickoff. ACC game.

Conditions · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium: At kickoff: 93°F, wind 8 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: SMU 0.0 · Louisville 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward Louisville.

Landed: SMU 31, Louisville 41. Louisville covered the closing line (Louisville −2.5). The move toward Louisville was right. 72 points, over the closing total of 58.5.

SMU Mustangs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Louisville Cardinals 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Louisville lineLouisville Cardinals spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Louisville.
−4−3−2−1Opening line−1.5Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−2Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM+1Closing line−2.5
−4−3−2−1Opening line−1.5Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−2Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM+1Closing line−2.5

Final: SMU 31, Louisville 41. Louisville beat the closing number by 7.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−1.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 10, 5:55 PM ET-2
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 12, 9:55 PM ET+1
Closing line−2.5
What moved the Louisville moneylineLouisville Cardinals moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Louisville.
−108−117−127Opening line−104Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−126Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM−115Price-only move−119Closing line−119
−108−117−127Opening line−104Market move, no reported newsThu 5:55 PM−126Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM−115Price-only move−119Closing line−119
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.1% (−104)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 10, 5:55 PM ET55.7% (−126)
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 12, 9:55 PM ET53.4% (−115)
Price-only move54.4% (−119)
Closing line54.4% (−119)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
56575859Opening line56.5Market move, no reported newsWed 7:55 PM+1Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM+1Closing line58.5
56575859Opening line56.5Market move, no reported newsWed 7:55 PM+1Reaction to last week's gameSat 9:55 PM+1Closing line58.5

Final: 72 points, over the closing total of 58.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line56.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 9, 7:55 PM ET+1
Reaction to last week's gameSat Sep 12, 9:55 PM ET+1
Closing line58.5

Every Book · Louisville side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −110−1321.76 54.4%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings−2.5 −108−1301.77 54.3%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel−2.5 −110−1321.76 54.4%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM−2.5 −110−1301.77 54.3%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars−2.5 −109−1301.77 54.4%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics−2.5 −110−1301.77 54.3%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers−1.5 −109−1221.82 52.4%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline−2 −115−1351.74 55.3%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada−2.5 −115−1351.74 55.3%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig−2 −111−1351.74 55.3%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie−2.5 −110−1351.74 54.7%58.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS−2.5 −110−1351.74 55.3%58.5Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.