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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 7:45 PM ET · Final Missouri 24, Mississippi State 31

14Missouri at 17Mississippi State

Mississippi State −1.5 at our first look, −5 at kickoff. SEC game.

Conditions · Davis Wade Stadium: At kickoff: 82°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Missouri 0.0 · Mississippi State 0.0. Market: moved 3.5 toward Mississippi State.

Landed: Missouri 24, Mississippi State 31. Mississippi State covered the closing line (Mississippi State −5). The move toward Mississippi State was right. 55 points, under the closing total of 58.5.

Missouri Tigers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Mississippi State lineMississippi State Bulldogs spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Mississippi State.
−6−5−4−3−2−1Opening line−1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−4.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+1Closing line−5
−6−5−4−3−2−1Opening line−1.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−4.5Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM+1Closing line−5

Final: Missouri 24, Mississippi State 31. Mississippi State beat the closing number by 2.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−1.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET-4.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 5:55 PM ET+1
Closing line−5
What moved the Mississippi State moneylineMississippi State Bulldogs moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Mississippi State.
−100−122−150−186Opening line−104Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−210Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−178Price-only move−187Closing line−187
−100−122−150−186Opening line−104Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−210Market move, no reported newsMon 5:55 PM−178Price-only move−187Closing line−187
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line51.1% (−104)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 9:55 AM ET67.7% (−210)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 5:55 PM ET64.0% (−178)
Price-only move65.2% (−187)
Closing line65.2% (−187)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
56575859Opening line56.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+2Closing line58.5
56575859Opening line56.5Market move, no reported newsSat 1:55 PM+2Closing line58.5

Final: 55 points, under the closing total of 58.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line56.5
Market move, no reported newsSat Sep 19, 1:55 PM ET+2
Closing line58.5

Every Book · Mississippi State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−5 −110−2101.48 65.2%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
DraftKings−4.5 −115−2181.46 65.7%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
FanDuel−4.5 −110−2001.50 63.8%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetMGM−4.5 −110−2101.48 65.1%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
Caesars−5 −109−2181.46 65.9%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
Fanatics−5 −110−2151.47 65.2%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetRivers−4.5 −114−2101.48 64.0%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetOnline−5 −110−2101.48 65.5%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
Bovada−5 −110−2101.48 65.1%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
LowVig−5 −106−2101.48 65.5%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
MyBookie−5 −110−2121.47 64.7%58.5Sat 5:55 PM
BetUS−5 −110−2101.48 65.5%58.5Sat 5:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.