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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 4 · Early Edition

College football · Week 4 · Saturday, September 26, 12:00 PM ET · Final Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27

Wake Forest at Louisville

Louisville −13.5 at our first look, −11 at kickoff. ACC game.

Conditions · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium: At kickoff: 70°F, wind 5 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Wake Forest 0.0 · Louisville 0.0. Market: moved 2.5 toward Wake Forest.

Landed: Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27. Wake Forest covered the closing line (Louisville −11). The move toward Wake Forest was right. 57 points, under the closing total of 57.5.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Louisville Cardinals 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Louisville lineLouisville Cardinals spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Louisville.
−14−13−12−11Opening line−13.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM+2Closing line−11
−14−13−12−11Opening line−13.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM+0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM+2Closing line−11

Final: Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27. Louisville missed the closing number by 14.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−13.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 3:55 PM ET+0.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 1:55 PM ET+2
Closing line−11
What moved the Louisville moneylineLouisville Cardinals moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Louisville.
−317−355−400−456Opening line−452Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−438Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−315Less than the spread implies−388Closing line−388
−317−355−400−456Opening line−452Reaction to last week's gameSun 3:55 PM−438Market move, no reported newsMon 1:55 PM−315Less than the spread implies−388Closing line−388
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line81.9% (−452)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 20, 3:55 PM ET81.4% (−438)
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 21, 1:55 PM ET75.9% (−315)
Less than the spread implies79.5% (−388)
Closing line79.5% (−388)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
575859Opening line58Reaction to last week's gameMon 1:55 AM+0.5Market move, no reported newsWed 9:55 PM−1Closing line57.5
575859Opening line58Reaction to last week's gameMon 1:55 AM+0.5Market move, no reported newsWed 9:55 PM−1Closing line57.5

Final: 57 points, under the closing total of 57.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line58
Reaction to last week's gameMon Sep 21, 1:55 AM ET+0.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 23, 9:55 PM ET-1
Closing line57.5

Every Book · Louisville side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−11 −110−4801.21 79.5%57.5Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings−11.5 −110−5001.20 80.0%57.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel−11.5 −104−4501.22 78.3%57.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM−11 −110−4751.21 79.7%57.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars−11 −109−5001.20 80.3%57.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics−11 −110−4751.21 79.2%57.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers−11.5 −110−5001.20 79.3%57Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline−11 −110−4801.21 79.5%57.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada−11 −110−4801.21 78.8%57.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig−11 −106−4801.21 79.5%57.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie−11.5 −110−4611.22 78.3%57.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS−11 −110−4801.21 79.8%57.5Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.