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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 12:00 PM ET · Final Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23

6Alabama at 17Mississippi State

Mississippi State +3 at our first look, +5.5 at kickoff. SEC game.

Conditions · Davis Wade Stadium: At kickoff: 80°F, wind 4 mph, dry.

The read at kickoff

News: Alabama 0.0 · Mississippi State 0.0. Market: moved 2.5 toward Alabama.

Landed: Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. Alabama covered the closing line (Mississippi State +5.5). The move toward Alabama was right. 79 points, over the closing total of 63.

Alabama Crimson Tide 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the Mississippi State lineMississippi State Bulldogs spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against Mississippi State.
+3+4+5+6Opening line+3Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+2.5Closing line+5.5
+3+4+5+6Opening line+3Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+2.5Closing line+5.5

Final: Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. Mississippi State missed the closing number by 27.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+3
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET+2.5
Closing line+5.5
What moved the Mississippi State moneylineMississippi State Bulldogs moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward Mississippi State.
+233+212+194+178+163+150+138Opening line+140Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM+160Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+226Less than the spread implies+190Closing line+190
+233+212+194+178+163+150+138Opening line+140Market move, no reported newsThu 1:55 PM+160Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+226Less than the spread implies+190Closing line+190
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line41.7% (+140)
Market move, no reported newsThu Sep 24, 1:55 PM ET38.5% (+160)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET30.7% (+226)
Less than the spread implies34.5% (+190)
Closing line34.5% (+190)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
585960616263Opening line58.5Market move, no reported newsFri 7:55 PM+4.5Closing line63
585960616263Opening line58.5Market move, no reported newsFri 7:55 PM+4.5Closing line63

Final: 79 points, over the closing total of 63.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line58.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 7:55 PM ET+4.5
Closing line63

Every Book · Mississippi State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+5.5 −110+1802.80 34.5%63Sat 11:55 AM
DraftKings+5.5 −112+1702.70 35.5%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
FanDuel+5.5 −110+1762.76 34.7%63.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetMGM+5.5 −108+1802.80 34.2%63.5Sat 11:55 AM
Caesars+5.5 −107+1812.81 34.2%63.5Sat 11:55 AM
Fanatics+5 −110+1702.70 35.3%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetRivers+5.5 −109+1802.80 33.9%63Sat 11:55 AM
BetOnline+5.5 −110+1882.88 33.5%63.5Sat 11:55 AM
Bovada+5 −110+1752.75 34.9%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
LowVig+5.5 −106+1882.88 33.5%63.5Sat 11:55 AM
MyBookie+5 −110+1682.68 35.5%62.5Sat 11:55 AM
BetUS+5.5 −110+1802.80 34.5%63Sat 11:55 AM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.