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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

College football · Week 5 · Saturday, October 3, 3:30 PM ET · Final Louisville 28, NC State 31

Louisville at NC State

NC State +7.5 at our first look, +3 at kickoff. ACC game.

Conditions · Carter-Finley Stadium: At kickoff: 70°F, wind 10 mph, rain.

The read at kickoff

News: Louisville 0.0 · NC State 0.0. Market: moved 4.5 toward NC State.

Landed: Louisville 28, NC State 31. NC State covered the closing line (NC State +3). The move toward NC State was right. 59 points, over the closing total of 56.5.

Louisville Cardinals 0.0

No news that moves the number.

NC State Wolfpack 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Quarterback news, valued from college efficiency (this season, plus last at half weight) over the team's next quarterback, in points from his team's side. College football has no official injury report: statuses come from team and media reports. News that broke before the line opened is already in the opening number.

Line Movement

What moved the NC State lineNC State Wolfpack spread, consensus of U.S. books. Right = against NC State.
+3+4+5+6+7+8Opening line+7.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−2Market move, no reported newsTue 11:55 AM−2.5Closing line+3
+3+4+5+6+7+8Opening line+7.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM−2Market move, no reported newsTue 11:55 AM−2.5Closing line+3

Final: Louisville 28, NC State 31. NC State beat the closing number by 6.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+7.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET-2
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 11:55 AM ET-2.5
Closing line+3
What moved the NC State moneylineNC State Wolfpack moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books. Right = toward NC State.
+233+186+150+122Opening line+260Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+182Market move, no reported newsTue 11:55 AM+115Less than the spread implies+148Closing line+148
+233+186+150+122Opening line+260Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+182Market move, no reported newsTue 11:55 AM+115Less than the spread implies+148Closing line+148
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line27.8% (+260)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET35.5% (+182)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 11:55 AM ET46.5% (+115)
Less than the spread implies40.3% (+148)
Closing line40.3% (+148)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under across U.S. books.
5657585960Opening line59.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−3.5Closing line56.5
5657585960Opening line59.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:55 AM+0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 11:55 AM−3.5Closing line56.5

Final: 59 points, over the closing total of 56.5.

Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line59.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Sep 27, 9:55 AM ET+0.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Sep 28, 11:55 AM ET-3.5
Closing line56.5

Every Book · NC State side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3 −108+1382.38 40.3%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
DraftKings+3.5 −115+1402.40 40.0%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
FanDuel+3.5 −120+1322.32 41.2%55.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetMGM+3 −102+1402.40 40.1%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
Caesars+3.5 −117+1382.38 40.3%57.5Sat 1:55 PM
Fanatics+3.5 −115+1352.35 40.9%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetRivers+3 −108+1302.30 41.1%56Sat 1:55 PM
BetOnline+3 −103+1422.42 40.1%57Sat 1:55 PM
Bovada+3.5 −115+1402.40 40.1%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
LowVig+3 +103+1422.42 40.1%57Sat 1:55 PM
MyBookie+3 −105+1342.34 40.8%56.5Sat 1:55 PM
BetUS+3 −105+1382.38 40.6%57Sat 1:55 PM

College football has no official injury report: our notes come from team and media reports, linked at the source, in our own words. Lines are the consensus (the median across U.S. sportsbooks) unless a book is named.