4 reports filed today
Every book · every report · every result

The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 4 · Monday, October 5, 8:15 PM ET

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Saints −3.5 at our first look, −2.5 now. 5 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Saints lineNew Orleans Saints spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against New Orleans.
−4−3−2Opening line−3.5NO LB Werner questionableSun 6:04 PM+1Reaction to last week's gameMon 12:57 AM−0.5NO RB Etienne Jr. to injuredreserveMon 2:24 PMmarket moved 1h before the report+0.5Line now−2.5
−4−3−2Opening line−3.5NO LB Werner questionableSun 6:04 PM+1Reaction to last week's gameMon 12:57 AM−0.5NO RB Etienne Jr. to injured reserveMon 2:24 PM · market moved 1h before the report+0.5Line now−2.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3.5
NO LB Werner questionableSun Sep 27, 6:04 PM ET+1
Reaction to last week's gameMon Sep 28, 12:57 AM ET-0.5
NO RB Etienne Jr. to injured reserveMon Sep 28, 2:24 PM ET+0.5
Line now−2.5
What moved the Saints moneylineNew Orleans Saints chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward New Orleans.
56%58%60%62%Opening line62.6% (−167)NO LB Werner questionableSun 6:04 PM−128Reaction to last week's gameMon 12:57 AM−136NO RB Etienne Jr. to injuredreserveMon 2:24 PMmarket moved 1h before the report−128Less than the spread implies−130Line now56.6% (−130)
56%58%60%62%Opening line62.6% (−167)NO LB Werner questionableSun 6:04 PM−128Reaction to last week's gameMon 12:57 AM−136NO RB Etienne Jr. to injured reserveMon 2:24 PM · market moved 1h before the report−128Less than the spread implies−130Line now56.6% (−130)
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line62.6% (−167)
NO LB Werner questionableSun Sep 27, 6:04 PM ET56.1% (−128)
Reaction to last week's gameMon Sep 28, 12:57 AM ET57.6% (−136)
NO RB Etienne Jr. to injured reserveMon Sep 28, 2:24 PM ET56.1% (−128)
Less than the spread implies56.6% (−130)
Line now56.6% (−130)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.
474849Opening line48.5Market move, no reported newsWed 12:51 PM−1Line now47.5
474849Opening line48.5Market move, no reported newsWed 12:51 PM−1Line now47.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line48.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 30, 12:51 PM ET-1
Line now47.5

Notes

Team SaysTue Sep 29, 5:34 PM · ATL

Tua settling in as Falcons' backup behind Penix

Atlanta indicates Tua Tagovailoa is recovering and accepting a reserve role, leaving Michael Penix Jr. as the starting quarterback. That keeps the quarterback plan unchanged heading into the game at New Orleans. ESPN

ATL since this note: +2.5 → +2.5 (no move)

InjuryMon Sep 28, 10:57 PM · NO

Etienne sidelined by hamstring, no timeline from Saints

Saints running back Travis Etienne Jr. hurt his hamstring in the loss to Las Vegas and will miss time, with coach Kellen Moore declining to give a timeline. That points to a larger backfield role for Alvin Kamara against Atlanta. ESPN

NO since this note: −2.5 → −2.5 (no move)

Injury Report

Atlanta Falcons

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Samson Ebukam
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.1 —

New Orleans Saints

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Pete Werner
Sun 5:45 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Sun 6:46 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Mon 3:25 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.2 —
RB Travis Etienne Jr.
Thu 4:42 PM		 Out → IR0.0 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Saints side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −116−1451.69 56.6%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
Kalshi−2.5 —−1251.80 55.5%48Thu 4:17 PM
DraftKings−2.5 −118−1481.68 57.2%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
FanDuel−2.5 −118−1441.69 56.7%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetMGM−2.5 −112−1451.69 56.6%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
Caesars−2.5 −118−1501.67 57.7%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
Fanatics−2.5 −115−1451.69 56.6%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetRivers−2.5 −118−1521.66 57.6%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetOnline−2.5 −116−1421.70 56.6%48Thu 4:17 PM
Bovada−2.5 −115−1451.69 57.1%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
LowVig−2.5 −110−1421.70 56.6%48Thu 4:17 PM
MyBookie−2.5 −115−1491.67 56.5%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetUS−2 −120−1401.71 56.2%47.5Thu 4:17 PM

Best for ATL: DraftKings +2.5 (−102)Best for NO: BetMGM −2.5 (−112)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Falcons side is the mirror image.