4 reports filed today
Every book · every report · every result

The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 4:25 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders +5.5 at our first look, +4.5 now. 7 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Raiders lineLas Vegas Raiders spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Las Vegas.
+4+5+6Opening line+5.5KC RB Walker III upgradedSun 1:14 PMmarket moved 4h before the report+0.5KC S Conner ruled outSun 7:58 PM−1.5Raiders QB O'Connell upgraded toquestionable for Chiefs gameWed 12:51 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsWed 3:26 PM+0.5Line now+4.5
+4+5+6Opening line+5.5KC RB Walker III upgradedSun 1:14 PM · market moved 4h before the report+0.5KC S Conner ruled outSun 7:58 PM−1.5Raiders QB O'Connell upgraded to questionablefor Chiefs gameWed 12:51 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsWed 3:26 PM+0.5Line now+4.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+5.5
KC RB Walker III upgradedSun Sep 27, 1:14 PM ET+0.5
KC S Conner ruled outSun Sep 27, 7:58 PM ET-1.5
Raiders QB O'Connell upgraded to questionable for Chiefs gameWed Sep 30, 12:51 PM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 30, 3:26 PM ET+0.5
Line now+4.5
What moved the Raiders moneylineLas Vegas Raiders chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Las Vegas.
30%32%34%36%Opening line31.6% (+216)KC RB Walker III upgradedSun 1:14 PMmarket moved 4h before the report+236KC S Conner ruled outSun 7:58 PM+182Raiders QB O'Connell upgraded toquestionable for Chiefs gameWed 12:51 PM+179Market move, no reported newsWed 3:26 PM+182Less than the spread implies+190Line now34.5% (+190)
30%32%34%36%Opening line31.6% (+216)KC RB Walker III upgradedSun 1:14 PM · market moved 4h before the report+236KC S Conner ruled outSun 7:58 PM+182Raiders QB O'Connell upgraded to questionablefor Chiefs gameWed 12:51 PM+179Market move, no reported newsWed 3:26 PM+182Less than the spread implies+190Line now34.5% (+190)
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line31.6% (+216)
KC RB Walker III upgradedSun Sep 27, 1:14 PM ET29.8% (+236)
KC S Conner ruled outSun Sep 27, 7:58 PM ET35.5% (+182)
Raiders QB O'Connell upgraded to questionable for Chiefs gameWed Sep 30, 12:51 PM ET35.8% (+179)
Market move, no reported newsWed Sep 30, 3:26 PM ET35.5% (+182)
Less than the spread implies34.5% (+190)
Line now34.5% (+190)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.

47.5 no movement since tracking began Mon 11:10 PM ET.

Notes

InjuryThu Oct 1, 4:03 PM · LV

O'Connell sits out Wednesday practice, still questionable for Raiders

Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell did not practice Wednesday for personal reasons and remains questionable. His availability for Sunday against Kansas City is still unsettled. ESPN player news

LV since this note: +4.5 → +4.5 (no move)

InjuryThu Oct 1, 2:42 PM · KC

Reid says bulging disk behind Simmons' long absence

Andy Reid said left tackle Josh Simmons has been dealing with a bulging disk, explaining why he has not practiced since mid-August. His continued absence leaves Kansas City without its starting left tackle for the trip to Las Vegas. ESPN

KC since this note: −4 → −4.5 (−0.5)

InjuryTue Sep 29, 2:22 PM · LV

Raiders QB O'Connell upgraded to questionable for Chiefs game

Aidan O'Connell is listed as questionable, an improvement from being ruled out for the previous game. His availability affects who starts at quarterback for Las Vegas against Kansas City. ESPN player news

LV since this note: +4.5 → +4.5 (no move)

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · KC

Chiefs rule out quarterback Nussmeier

Kansas City listed quarterback Garrett Nussmeier as out and inactive. The move affects the Chiefs' quarterback depth behind their starter. ESPN player news

KC since this note: −6 → −4.5 (+1.5)

Injury Report

Kansas City Chiefs

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
RB Kenneth Walker III
Sun 5:04 PM		 Out → Returning−0.4 —
LT Josh Simmons
Sun 5:25 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.5 —
S Chamarri Conner
Sun 5:25 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.3 —
LT Josh Simmons
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.6 —
S Chamarri Conner
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.2 —

Las Vegas Raiders

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
G Jackson Powers-Johnson
Sun 8:08 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
S Treydan Stukes
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.4 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Raiders side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+4.5 −110+1802.80 34.5%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
Kalshi+4.5 —+1862.86 35.0%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
DraftKings+4.5 −108+1802.80 34.3%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
FanDuel+4.5 −108+1882.88 33.4%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetMGM+4.5 −110+1802.80 34.2%48Thu 4:17 PM
Caesars+4.5 −108+1772.77 34.7%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
Fanatics+4 −110+1752.75 34.8%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetRivers+5 −113+1802.80 34.2%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetOnline+4 −105+1802.80 34.5%48Thu 4:17 PM
Bovada+4 −110+1752.75 34.9%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
LowVig+4 −102+1802.80 34.5%48Thu 4:17 PM
MyBookie+4.5 −110+1722.72 34.7%48Thu 4:17 PM
BetUS+4.5 −110+1802.80 34.5%48Thu 4:17 PM

Best for KC: Fanatics −4 (−110)Best for LV: BetRivers +5 (−113)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Chiefs side is the mirror image.