4 reports filed today
Every book · every report · every result

The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 4:05 PM ET

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings

Vikings −10.5 at our first look, −10.5 now. 9 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the Vikings lineMinnesota Vikings spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Minnesota.
−11−10Opening line−10.5MIN CB Demmings ruled outSun 7:37 PM+0.5MIA RB Achane to injured reserveMon 4:29 PM−1MIA RB Wright upgradedTue 11:25 PM+0.5Line now−10.5
−11−10Opening line−10.5MIN CB Demmings ruled outSun 7:37 PM+0.5MIA RB Achane to injured reserveMon 4:29 PM−1MIA RB Wright upgradedTue 11:25 PM+0.5Line now−10.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−10.5
MIN CB Demmings ruled outSun Sep 27, 7:37 PM ET+0.5
MIA RB Achane to injured reserveMon Sep 28, 4:29 PM ET-1
MIA RB Wright upgradedTue Sep 29, 11:25 PM ET+0.5
Line now−10.5
What moved the Vikings moneylineMinnesota Vikings chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward Minnesota.
82%83%Opening line82.4% (−468)MIN CB Demmings ruled outSun 7:37 PM−452MIA RB Achane to injured reserveMon 4:29 PM−495MIA RB Wright upgradedTue 11:25 PM−468Line now82.7% (−478)
82%83%Opening line82.4% (−468)MIN CB Demmings ruled outSun 7:37 PM−452MIA RB Achane to injured reserveMon 4:29 PM−495MIA RB Wright upgradedTue 11:25 PM−468Line now82.7% (−478)
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line82.4% (−468)
MIN CB Demmings ruled outSun Sep 27, 7:37 PM ET81.9% (−452)
MIA RB Achane to injured reserveMon Sep 28, 4:29 PM ET83.2% (−495)
MIA RB Wright upgradedTue Sep 29, 11:25 PM ET82.4% (−468)
Line now82.7% (−478)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.
3839Opening line38.5Market move, no reported newsThu 2:13 PM+0.5Line now39
3839Opening line38.5Market move, no reported newsThu 2:13 PM+0.5Line now39
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line38.5
Market move, no reported newsThu Oct 1, 2:13 PM ET+0.5
Line now39

Notes

RosterTue Sep 29, 1:49 PM · MIN

Vikings promote QB Brosmer from practice squad

Minnesota is signing quarterback Max Brosmer to the active roster off the practice squad. The move adds quarterback depth with the Vikings juggling injuries at the position ahead of Sunday's game against Miami. ESPN player news

MIN since this note: −11 → −10.5 (+0.5)

InjuryMon Sep 28, 10:57 PM · MIN

Jefferson's ankle sprain leaves door open for Sunday vs. Dolphins

An MRI on Monday showed Justin Jefferson has a sprained ankle, and there is a chance he suits up against Miami in Week 4. His availability would significantly shape Minnesota's passing game and the market for the matchup. ESPN

MIN since this note: −11 → −10.5 (+0.5)

InjuryMon Sep 28, 10:57 PM · MIA

Dolphins lose Achane for season with torn ACL

Miami running back De'Von Achane tore an ACL in Sunday's loss to Kansas City and is done for the season, according to reports. The Dolphins will need a new lead back at Minnesota, removing their top offensive weapon from the game plan. ESPN

MIA since this note: +10.5 → +10.5 (no move)

InjuryTue Sep 29, 10:25 AM · MIN

Murray clears concussion protocol, starts and wins at Tampa Bay

Kyler Murray was active and started for Minnesota on Sunday after a concussion, throwing for 168 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a win at Tampa Bay. His return puts him in line to remain the starter against Miami. ESPN player news

MIN since this note: −10 → −10.5 (−0.5)

Injury Report

Miami Dolphins

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
RB De'Von Achane
Sun 1:41 PM		 Active → Doubtful+0.4 —
RB De'Von Achane
Mon 11:01 AM		 Doubtful → Out+0.0 —
RB De'Von Achane
Mon 4:27 PM		 Out → IR0.0 —
RB Jaylen Wright
Tue 1:06 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.1 —
WR Chris Bell
Wed 5:54 PM		 Active → Questionable0.0 —

Minnesota Vikings

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Justin Jefferson
Sun 5:04 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —
CB Charles Demmings
Sun 6:46 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —
CB Charles Demmings
Mon 5:28 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.1 —
LB Blake Cashman
Wed 6:34 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Vikings side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−10.5 −110−6151.16 82.7%39Thu 4:17 PM
Kalshi−10 —−5451.18 84.5%39Thu 4:17 PM
DraftKings−10.5 −108−6001.17 82.2%38.5Thu 4:17 PM
FanDuel−10.5 −115−6501.15 83.4%38.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetMGM−10.5 −110−6251.16 83.2%39Thu 4:17 PM
Caesars−10.5 −110−6251.16 82.6%38.5Thu 4:17 PM
Fanatics−10.5 −110−6001.17 82.0%39Thu 4:17 PM
BetRivers−10.5 −109−6251.16 82.6%39.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetOnline−10.5 −110−6151.16 82.7%38.5Thu 4:17 PM
Bovada−10.5 −105−6001.17 81.8%39Thu 4:17 PM
LowVig−10.5 −105−6151.16 82.7%38.5Thu 4:17 PM
MyBookie−10.5 −110−7251.14 83.6%39Thu 4:17 PM
BetUS−10.5 −110−6151.16 82.8%39Thu 4:17 PM

Best for MIA: FanDuel +10.5 (−105)Best for MIN: DraftKings −10.5 (−108)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Dolphins side is the mirror image.