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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

Week 5 · Sunday, October 11, 8:20 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Falcons +6.5 at our first look, +3.5 now. 2 injury reports on file.

The read so far

News: Ravens −1.5 · Falcons 0.0 → favors the Falcons by 1.5. Market: moved 3 toward the Falcons. Moved past our number

Baltimore Ravens −1.5

QB Lamar Jackson
Active → Questionable		 Questionable−1.3
LT Ronnie Stanley
Active → Questionable		 Questionable−0.2

Atlanta Falcons 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Falcons lineAtlanta Falcons spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Atlanta.
+3+4+5+6+7Opening line+6.5Market move, no reported newsTue 4:18 PM−0.5Jackson leaves stadium in walkingboot after ankle injurySun 11:17 PM−1.7BAL QB Jackson questionableSun 11:17 PM−0.8Line now+3.5
+3+4+5+6+7Opening line+6.5Market move, no reported newsTue 4:18 PM−0.5Jackson leaves stadium in walking boot afterankle injurySun 11:17 PM−1.7BAL QB Jackson questionableSun 11:17 PM−0.8Line now+3.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+6.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 4:18 PM ET-0.5
Jackson leaves stadium in walking boot after ankle injurySun Oct 4, 11:17 PM ET-1.7
BAL QB Jackson questionableSun Oct 4, 11:17 PM ET-0.8
Line now+3.5
What moved the Falcons moneylineAtlanta Falcons moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward Atlanta.
+285+257+233+212+194+178Opening line+285Market move, no reported newsTue 4:18 PM+248Jackson leaves stadium in walkingboot after ankle injurySun 11:17 PM+195BAL QB Jackson questionableSun 11:17 PM+174Less than the spread implies+182Line now+182
+285+257+233+212+194+178Opening line+285Market move, no reported newsTue 4:18 PM+248Jackson leaves stadium in walking boot afterankle injurySun 11:17 PM+195BAL QB Jackson questionableSun 11:17 PM+174Less than the spread implies+182Line now+182
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line26.0% (+285)
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 4:18 PM ET28.7% (+248)
Jackson leaves stadium in walking boot after ankle injurySun Oct 4, 11:17 PM ET33.9% (+195)
BAL QB Jackson questionableSun Oct 4, 11:17 PM ET36.5% (+174)
Less than the spread implies35.4% (+182)
Line now35.4% (+182)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
47484950Opening line49.5BAL QB Jackson questionableSun 7:38 PM−2.5Line now47
47484950Opening line49.5BAL QB Jackson questionableSun 7:38 PM−2.5Line now47
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line49.5
BAL QB Jackson questionableSun Oct 4, 7:38 PM ET-2.5
Line now47

Notes

MarketSun Oct 4, 11:22 PM · ATL

Line moves 2.5 toward the Falcons after last week's results

The consensus spread on Ravens at Falcons has moved from +6 to +3.5 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

ATL since this note: +4.5 → +3.5 (−1.0)

MarketSun Oct 4, 7:40 PM · ATL

Total drops 2.5 for Ravens at Falcons after last week's results

The consensus total on Ravens at Falcons has moved from 49.5 to 47. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

ATL since this note: +4.5 → +3.5 (−1.0)

InjurySun Oct 4, 5:18 PM · BAL

Jackson leaves stadium in walking boot after ankle injury

Lamar Jackson was wearing a walking boot on his left foot following Baltimore's win over Tennessee, where he hurt his ankle. That raises doubt about his availability for the Ravens' next game at Atlanta. ESPN player news

BAL since this note: −6 → −3.5 (+2.5)

InjurySun Oct 4, 4:46 PM · BAL

Ravens upbeat on Jackson ankle after win over Titans

Lamar Jackson left Sunday's win over Tennessee in the first half with an ankle injury, but coach Jesse Minter said afterward the team is optimistic about it. That suggests Jackson has a chance to play Monday night at Atlanta rather than facing a long absence. ESPN player news

BAL since this note: −6 → −3.5 (+2.5)

Injury Report

Baltimore Ravens

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
QB Lamar Jackson
Sun 3:05 PM		 Active → Questionable+1.3 —
LT Ronnie Stanley
Sun 5:16 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —

Atlanta Falcons

Nothing on the report.

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Falcons side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3.5 −110+1702.70 35.4%47Mon 1:22 AM
Kalshi+3.5 —+1902.90 34.5%47Mon 1:22 AM
DraftKings+3.5 −115+1602.60 36.9%46.5Mon 1:22 AM
FanDuel+4.5 −118+1762.76 34.8%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
BetMGM+4 −110+1702.70 35.3%47Mon 1:22 AM
Caesars+3.5 −110+1702.70 35.5%47Mon 1:22 AM
BetRivers+3.5 −112+1702.70 35.2%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
BetOnline+3.5 −110+1742.74 35.4%47Mon 1:22 AM
LowVig+3.5 −105+1742.74 35.4%47Mon 1:22 AM
MyBookie+6 −110—— —49.5Sun 12:54 PM
BetUS+3.5 −105—— —47Mon 1:22 AM

Best for BAL: DraftKings −3.5 (−105)Best for ATL: FanDuel +4.5 (−118)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Ravens side is the mirror image.