Week 5 · Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Dolphins +8.5 at our first look, +7.5 now. 0 injury reports on file.
Conditions · Hard Rock Stadium: Forecast 90°F, wind 15 mph, 27% chance of rain.
The read so far
News: Bengals 0.0 · Dolphins 0.0. Market: moved 1 toward the Dolphins.
Cincinnati Bengals 0.0
No news that moves the number.
Miami Dolphins 0.0
No news that moves the number.
Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.
Line Movement
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | +8.5 | |
| Higgins Exits With Adductor Injury, Status Murky For Miami | Sun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET | -1 |
| Line now | +7.5 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 18.8% (+432) | |
| Higgins Exits With Adductor Injury, Status Murky For Miami | Sun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET | 21.7% (+361) |
| Price-only move | 23.1% (+333) | |
| Line now | 23.1% (+333) |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 46.5 | |
| Wind in the Forecast | Sun Oct 4, 8:41 PM ET | -1 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 4, 8:41 PM ET | -3.5 |
| Line now | 42 |
Notes
Total drops 3 for Bengals at Dolphins after last week's results
The consensus total on Bengals at Dolphins has moved from 45.5 to 42.5, with 4 of 4 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
MIA since this note: +7.5 → +7.5 (no move)
Line moves 1 toward the Dolphins with no reported news
The consensus spread on Bengals at Dolphins has moved from +8.5 to +7.5 (home side). Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.
MIA since this note: +7.5 → +7.5 (no move)
Total drops 4.5 for Bengals at Dolphins with no reported news
The consensus total on Bengals at Dolphins has moved from 46.5 to 42. Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.
MIA since this note: +7.5 → +7.5 (no move)
Higgins Exits With Adductor Injury, Status Murky For Miami
Tee Higgins left Sunday's loss to Jacksonville late in the fourth quarter with an adductor injury after a big receiving day. His availability for the Bengals' trip to Miami is now in question. ProFootballTalk
CIN since this note: −8.5 → −7.5 (+1.0)
Wind in the Forecast for Bengals at Dolphins
The forecast for kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium calls for wind 15 mph, gusting 16, 90°F. Strong, steady wind has historically cut scoring in the NFL, mostly through the passing and kicking games. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.
Total since this forecast: 46.5 → 42 (−4.5)
Line moves 1.5 toward the Dolphins ahead of the news
The consensus spread on Bengals at Dolphins has moved from +9 to +7.5 (home side), with 7 of 7 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The market started moving 10h 38m before the report: Bryan Cook (S) Questionable to Out.
MIA since this note: +8.5 → +7.5 (−1.0)
Injury Report
Cincinnati Bengals
Nothing on the report.
Miami Dolphins
Nothing on the report.
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Dolphins side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +7.5 | −110 | +316 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 42 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | — | +355 | 4.55 | 22.0% | 43 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| DraftKings | +7 | −105 | +280 | 3.80 | 25.2% | 41.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| FanDuel | +7.5 | −110 | +315 | 4.15 | 23.1% | 42.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetMGM | +7.5 | −110 | +333 | 4.33 | 22.2% | 42.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| Caesars | +7.5 | −110 | +305 | 4.05 | 23.7% | 42 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetRivers | +7.5 | −112 | +325 | 4.25 | 22.4% | 42.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetOnline | +7 | −110 | +316 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 42 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| LowVig | +7 | −105 | +316 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 42 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| MyBookie | +8.5 | −110 | — | — | — | 46.5 | Sun 12:54 PM |
| BetUS | +7.5 | −110 | — | — | — | 42 | Mon 1:22 AM |
Best for CIN: DraftKings −7 (−115)Best for MIA: FanDuel +7.5 (−110)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Bengals side is the mirror image.