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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

Week 5 · Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Jets −2.5 at our first look, −2 now. 1 injury report on file.

Conditions · MetLife Stadium: Forecast 64°F, wind 11 mph, 4% chance of rain.

The read so far

News: Browns 0.0 · Jets −0.1. Market: moved 0.5 toward the Browns.

Cleveland Browns 0.0

No news that moves the number.

New York Jets −0.1

NB Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
Active → Questionable		 Questionable−0.1

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Jets lineNew York Jets spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against New York.
−3−2Opening line−2.5NYJ NB Brownlee Jr. questionableSun 6:26 PM+0.5Line now−2
−3−2Opening line−2.5NYJ NB Brownlee Jr. questionableSun 6:26 PM+0.5Line now−2
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−2.5
NYJ NB Brownlee Jr. questionableSun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET+0.5
Line now−2
What moved the Jets moneylineNew York Jets moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward New York.
−122−127Opening line−127NYJ NB Brownlee Jr. questionableSun 6:26 PM−122Line now−123
−122−127Opening line−127NYJ NB Brownlee Jr. questionableSun 6:26 PM−122Line now−123
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line56.0% (−127)
NYJ NB Brownlee Jr. questionableSun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET54.9% (−122)
Line now55.2% (−123)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
3940Opening line39.5NYJ NB Brownlee Jr. questionableSun 6:57 PM+0.5Line now40
3940Opening line39.5NYJ NB Brownlee Jr. questionableSun 6:57 PM+0.5Line now40
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line39.5
NYJ NB Brownlee Jr. questionableSun Oct 4, 6:57 PM ET+0.5
Line now40

Notes

WeatherSun Oct 4, 4:54 PM

Wind in the Forecast for Browns at Jets

The forecast for kickoff at MetLife Stadium calls for wind 12 mph, gusting 19. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.

Total since this forecast: 39.5 → 40 (+0.5)

InjuryThu Oct 1, 10:31 PM · CLE

Browns lose DT Mason Graham to knee injury in Thursday loss window

Mason Graham was ruled out of Cleveland's Thursday night game against Pittsburgh with a knee injury. His status for the following game at the Jets is now in question, which would thin the Browns' interior defensive line. ESPN

CLE since this note: +2.5 → +2 (−0.5)

Injury Report

Cleveland Browns

Nothing on the report.

New York Jets

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
NB Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
Sun 3:26 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Jets side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2 −110−1341.75 55.2%40Mon 1:22 AM
Kalshi−2 —−1251.80 55.5%40Mon 1:22 AM
DraftKings−2.5 −105−1301.77 54.3%40.5Mon 1:22 AM
FanDuel−1.5 −120−1341.75 55.1%40.5Mon 1:22 AM
BetMGM−1.5 −110−1251.80 53.2%40Mon 1:22 AM
Caesars−2.5 −107−1401.71 55.4%40Mon 1:22 AM
BetRivers−1.5 −110−1241.81 52.8%40.5Mon 1:22 AM
BetOnline−2.5 −110−1381.72 55.8%40Mon 1:22 AM
LowVig−2.5 −105−1381.72 55.8%40Mon 1:22 AM
MyBookie−2 −110—— —40Mon 1:22 AM
BetUS−1 −120—— —40Mon 1:22 AM

Best for CLE: Caesars +2.5 (−113)Best for NYJ: BetMGM −1.5 (−110)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Browns side is the mirror image.