Week 5 · Sunday, October 11, 4:05 PM ET
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers +2.5 at our first look, +3.5 now. 5 injury reports on file.
Conditions: Indoors.
The read so far
News: Broncos −0.5 · Chargers −0.4. Market: moved 1 toward the Broncos.
Denver Broncos −0.5
| CB Pat Surtain II Active → Questionable |
Questionable | −0.3 |
| CB Riley Moss Active → Questionable |
Questionable | −0.2 |
Los Angeles Chargers −0.4
| WR Ladd McConkey Active → Questionable |
Questionable | −0.2 |
| CB Donte Jackson Active → Questionable |
Questionable | −0.1 |
| G Trevor Penning Active → Questionable |
Questionable | −0.1 |
Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.
Line Movement
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | +2.5 | |
| LAC WR McConkey questionable | Sun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET | +0.5 |
| LAC CB Jackson questionable | Sun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET | +0.4 |
| Line now | +3.5 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 46.0% (+117) | |
| LAC WR McConkey questionable | Sun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET | 42.7% (+134) |
| LAC CB Jackson questionable | Sun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET | 40.2% (+149) |
| Price-only move | 37.7% (+165) | |
| Line now | 37.7% (+165) |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 43.5 | |
| LAC WR McConkey questionable | Sun Oct 4, 9:12 PM ET | -0.5 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 4, 9:12 PM ET | -0.5 |
| Line now | 42.5 |
Notes
Line moves 1 toward the Broncos ahead of the news
The consensus spread on Broncos at Chargers has moved from +2.5 to +3.5 (home side). The market started moving 0h 14m before the report: Ladd McConkey (WR1) Active to Questionable.
LAC since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move)
Line moves 1.5 toward the Broncos ahead of the news
The consensus spread on Broncos at Chargers has moved from +2 to +3.5 (home side), with 7 of 7 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The market started moving 3h 51m before the report: Derwin James Jr. (S) Questionable to Out.
LAC since this note: +2.5 → +3.5 (+1.0)
Injury Report
Denver Broncos
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| CB Pat Surtain II Sun 5:58 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.3 | — |
| CB Riley Moss Sun 6:30 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.2 | — |
Los Angeles Chargers
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| CB Donte Jackson Sun 5:27 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
| WR Ladd McConkey Sun 6:40 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.2 | — |
| G Trevor Penning Sun 6:57 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Chargers side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +3.5 | −112 | +154 | 2.54 | 37.7% | 42.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | — | +167 | 2.67 | 37.5% | 42.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| DraftKings | +3.5 | −110 | +154 | 2.54 | 37.8% | 43.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| FanDuel | +3.5 | −112 | +158 | 2.58 | 37.3% | 42.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetMGM | +3.5 | −112 | +155 | 2.55 | 37.7% | 42.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| Caesars | +3.5 | −110 | +152 | 2.52 | 38.1% | 42 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetRivers | +3.5 | −107 | +160 | 2.60 | 36.8% | 42.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetOnline | +3.5 | −120 | +149 | 2.49 | 38.9% | 42 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| LowVig | +3.5 | −116 | +149 | 2.49 | 38.9% | 42 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| MyBookie | — | — | — | — | — | 43.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetUS | +3.5 | −115 | — | — | — | 42.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
Best for DEN: BetMGM −3.5 (−105)Best for LAC: BetRivers +3.5 (−107)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Broncos side is the mirror image.