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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

Week 5 · Sunday, October 11, 4:25 PM ET

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals +5.5 at our first look, +4.5 now. 3 injury reports on file.

The read so far

News: Lions −0.2 · Cardinals +0.4 → favors the Cardinals by 0.5. Market: moved 1 toward the Cardinals. Moved past our number

Detroit Lions −0.2

CB Rock Ya-Sin
Active → Questionable		 Questionable−0.2

Arizona Cardinals +0.4

LT Paris Johnson Jr.
Out → Questionable		 Questionable+0.4
G Isaiah Adams
Active → Questionable		 Questionable−0.1

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Cardinals lineArizona Cardinals spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Arizona.
+4+5+6Opening line+5.5ARI LT Johnson Jr. upgradedMon 12:51 AM−0.7DET CB Ya-Sin questionableMon 12:51 AM−0.3Line now+4.5
+4+5+6Opening line+5.5ARI LT Johnson Jr. upgradedMon 12:51 AM−0.7DET CB Ya-Sin questionableMon 12:51 AM−0.3Line now+4.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+5.5
ARI LT Johnson Jr. upgradedMon Oct 5, 12:51 AM ET-0.7
DET CB Ya-Sin questionableMon Oct 5, 12:51 AM ET-0.3
Line now+4.5
What moved the Cardinals moneylineArizona Cardinals moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward Arizona.
+223+212+203+194+186+178Opening line+217ARI LT Johnson Jr. upgradedMon 12:51 AM+192DET CB Ya-Sin questionableMon 12:51 AM+182Less than the spread implies+201Line now+201
+223+212+203+194+186+178Opening line+217ARI LT Johnson Jr. upgradedMon 12:51 AM+192DET CB Ya-Sin questionableMon 12:51 AM+182Less than the spread implies+201Line now+201
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line31.5% (+217)
ARI LT Johnson Jr. upgradedMon Oct 5, 12:51 AM ET34.3% (+192)
DET CB Ya-Sin questionableMon Oct 5, 12:51 AM ET35.4% (+182)
Less than the spread implies33.2% (+201)
Line now33.2% (+201)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
525354Opening line52.5ARI LT Johnson Jr. upgradedSun 6:26 PM+0.7DET CB Ya-Sin questionableSun 6:26 PMmarket moved 5h before the report+0.8Line now54
525354Opening line52.5ARI LT Johnson Jr. upgradedSun 6:26 PM+0.7DET CB Ya-Sin questionableSun 6:26 PM · market moved 5h before the report+0.8Line now54
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line52.5
ARI LT Johnson Jr. upgradedSun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET+0.7
DET CB Ya-Sin questionableSun Oct 4, 6:26 PM ET+0.8
Line now54

Notes

MarketMon Oct 5, 1:05 AM · ARI

Line moves 1 toward the Cardinals after last week's results

The consensus spread on Lions at Cardinals has moved from +5.5 to +4.5 (home side), with 0 of 2 books moving the same way. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

ARI since this note: +4.5 → +4.5 (no move)

Injury Report

Detroit Lions

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
CB Rock Ya-Sin
Sun 10:59 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —

Arizona Cardinals

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
G Isaiah Adams
Sun 3:00 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
LT Paris Johnson Jr.
Sun 4:45 PM		 Out → Questionable−0.4 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Cardinals side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+4.5 −110+1882.88 33.2%54Mon 1:22 AM
Kalshi— —+2083.08 32.5%—Mon 1:22 AM
DraftKings+5.5 −110+2003.00 31.9%54.5Mon 1:22 AM
FanDuel+4.5 −115+1802.80 34.4%53.5Mon 1:22 AM
BetMGM+4.5 −108+1882.88 33.4%54Mon 1:22 AM
Caesars— —+1892.89 33.2%54Mon 1:22 AM
BetRivers+5.5 −113+2103.10 30.8%53Sun 8:09 PM
BetOnline+5 −110—— —52.5Sun 11:08 AM
LowVig+5 −105—— —52.5Sun 11:08 AM
MyBookie+5.5 −110—— —52.5Sun 12:54 PM
BetUS+5 −110—— —52.5Sun 11:08 AM

Best for DET: FanDuel −4.5 (−105)Best for ARI: DraftKings +5.5 (−110)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Lions side is the mirror image.