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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

Week 5 · Thursday, October 8, 8:15 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys −9.5 at our first look, −9.5 now. 0 injury reports on file.

The read so far

News: Buccaneers 0.0 · Cowboys 0.0. Market: line unchanged.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Dallas Cowboys 0.0

No news that moves the number.

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Cowboys lineDallas Cowboys spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Dallas.

−9.5 no movement since tracking began Tue 3:16 PM ET.

What moved the Cowboys moneylineDallas Cowboys moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward Dallas.
−426−456Opening line−421Price-only move−452Line now−452
−426−456Opening line−421Price-only move−452Line now−452
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line80.8% (−421)
Price-only move81.9% (−452)
Line now81.9% (−452)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
4748Opening line47Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:28 PM+0.5Line now47.5
4748Opening line47Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:28 PM+0.5Line now47.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line47
Reaction to last week's gameSun Oct 4, 7:28 PM ET+0.5
Line now47.5

Notes

RosterSun Oct 4, 7:29 PM · TB

Daniels Takes Over Bucs Offense With Mayfield Sidelined

Jalon Daniels started under center for Tampa Bay in Sunday's 17-14 loss to Green Bay, throwing for 148 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions while adding 55 rushing yards. With Mayfield out, Daniels is in line to lead the offense at Dallas. ESPN player news

TB since this note: +9.5 → +9.5 (no move)

InjurySun Oct 4, 5:39 PM · DAL

Prescott Shrugs Off Hand Injury After Texans Beating

Dak Prescott hurt his throwing hand on a cleat during Sunday's game but said afterward he is fine. That points to the Cowboys quarterback being available for the next game against Tampa Bay. ProFootballTalk

DAL since this note: −10 → −9.5 (+0.5)

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Nothing on the report.

Dallas Cowboys

Nothing on the report.

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Cowboys side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−9.5 −112−5751.17 81.9%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
Kalshi−10 —−4881.20 83.0%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
DraftKings−10 −110−5501.18 81.2%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
FanDuel−9.5 −115−6001.17 82.5%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
BetMGM−9.5 −110−5501.18 81.6%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
Caesars−9.5 −114−5901.17 81.8%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
Fanatics−10 −105−5751.17 81.6%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
BetRivers−9.5 −113−6251.16 82.3%46.5Mon 1:22 AM
BetOnline−9.5 −116−5751.17 81.9%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
LowVig−9.5 −112−5751.17 81.9%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
MyBookie−9.5 −110−5261.19 79.4%—Sun 6:15 PM
BetUS−10 +100—— —47.5Mon 1:22 AM

Best for TB: DraftKings +10 (−110)Best for DAL: BetMGM −9.5 (−110)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Buccaneers side is the mirror image.