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The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 Week 9 · Early Edition

Week 9 · Sunday, November 8, 4:25 PM ET

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks −11 at our first look, −11.5 now. 13 injury reports on file. Team pages: Cardinals · Seahawks

Conditions · Lumen Field: Forecast 55°F, wind 9 mph (gusts 19), 40% chance of rain.

The read so far

News: Cardinals −0.1 · Seahawks +0.2 → favors the Seahawks by 0.3. Market: moved 0.5 toward the Seahawks.

Arizona Cardinals −0.1

DT Walter Nolen III
Out → Questionable · 0.5 if out, sits 36% of the time
Questionable+0.3
RB Jeremiyah Love
Active → Questionable → Out → IR
IR−0.3
WR Kendrick Bourne
Active → Questionable → Doubtful → Out → IR
IR−0.1
WR Michael Wilson
Active → Questionable · 0.3 if out, sits 36% of the time
Questionable−0.1
G Jon Gaines II
Out → Questionable · 0.1 if out, sits 36% of the time
Questionable+0.1

Seattle Seahawks +0.2

LT Charles Cross
Out → Questionable · 0.7 if out, sits 36% of the time
Questionable+0.5
EDGE Leonard Williams
Active → Questionable · 1.1 if out, sits 36% of the time
Questionable−0.4
LB Uchenna Nwosu
Out → Questionable · 0.2 if out, sits 36% of the time
Questionable+0.1

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. A questionable starter counts at his chance of sitting (shown beside him with his full value if he's ruled out). After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Seahawks lineSeattle Seahawks spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Seattle.
−12−11Opening line−11SEA LT Cross upgradedTue 7:27 PM−0.5Line now−11.5
−12−11Opening line−11SEA LT Cross upgradedTue 7:27 PM−0.5Line now−11.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−11
SEA LT Cross upgradedTue Nov 3, 7:27 PM ET-0.5
Line now−11.5
What moved the Seahawks moneylineSeattle Seahawks moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward Seattle.
−525−567−614−669−733Opening line−641SEA LT Cross upgradedTue 7:27 PM−726Less than the spread implies−545Line now−545
−525−567−614−669−733Opening line−641SEA LT Cross upgradedTue 7:27 PM−726Less than the spread implies−545Line now−545
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line86.5% (−641)
SEA LT Cross upgradedTue Nov 3, 7:27 PM ET87.9% (−726)
Less than the spread implies84.5% (−545)
Line now84.5% (−545)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
42434445Opening line44.5ARI WR Wilson questionableTue 12:49 AM−0.5ARI DT Nolen III upgradedTue 1:43 PM−0.7ARI RB Love to injured reserveTue 1:43 PM−0.5SEA LB Nwosu upgradedTue 1:43 PM−0.3Reaction to last week's gameTue 1:43 PM−0.5Line now42
42434445Opening line44.5ARI WR Wilson questionableTue 12:49 AM−0.5ARI DT Nolen III upgradedTue 1:43 PM−0.7ARI RB Love to injured reserveTue 1:43 PM−0.5SEA LB Nwosu upgradedTue 1:43 PM−0.3Reaction to last week's gameTue 1:43 PM−0.5Line now42
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line44.5
ARI WR Wilson questionableTue Nov 3, 12:49 AM ET-0.5
ARI DT Nolen III upgradedTue Nov 3, 1:43 PM ET-0.7
ARI RB Love to injured reserveTue Nov 3, 1:43 PM ET-0.5
SEA LB Nwosu upgradedTue Nov 3, 1:43 PM ET-0.3
Reaction to last week's gameTue Nov 3, 1:43 PM ET-0.5
Line now42

Notes

MarketTue Nov 3, 1:53 PM · SEA

Total drops 1.5 for Cardinals at Seahawks

The consensus total on Cardinals at Seahawks has moved from 43.5 to 42. The move followed the report: Leonard Williams (EDGE) Active to Questionable.

SEA since this note: −11 → −11.5 (−0.5)

MarketTue Nov 3, 12:52 PM · SEA

Total drops 1.5 for Cardinals at Seahawks ahead of the news

The consensus total on Cardinals at Seahawks has moved from 44 to 42.5. The market started moving 1h 02m before the report: Leonard Williams (EDGE) Active to Questionable.

SEA since this note: −11 → −11.5 (−0.5)

MarketTue Nov 3, 2:14 PM · SEA

Total drops 2.5 for Cardinals at Seahawks ahead of the news

The consensus total on Cardinals at Seahawks has moved from 44.5 to 42. The market started moving 7h 17m before the report: Uchenna Nwosu (LB) Out to Questionable.

SEA since this note: −10.5 → −11.5 (−1.0)

MarketTue Nov 3, 12:20 AM · SEA

Line moves 1 toward the Cardinals with no reported news

The consensus spread on Cardinals at Seahawks has moved from −11.5 to −10.5 (home side). Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.

SEA since this note: −11 → −11.5 (−0.5)

WeatherTue Nov 3, 12:41 AM

Wind in the Forecast for Cardinals at Seahawks

The forecast for kickoff at Lumen Field calls for wind 3 mph, gusting 35. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.

Total since this forecast: 44.5 → 42 (−2.5)

MarketMon Nov 2, 7:16 PM · SEA

Total rises 11.5 for Cardinals at Seahawks after last week's results

The consensus total on Cardinals at Seahawks has moved from 33 to 44.5. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

SEA since this note: −10.5 → −11.5 (−1.0)

MarketSun Nov 1, 6:59 PM · SEA

Line moves 1 toward the Cardinals after last week's results

The consensus spread on Cardinals at Seahawks has moved from −11.5 to −10.5 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

SEA since this note: −11 → −11.5 (−0.5)

MarketSun Nov 1, 7:19 PM · SEA

Total drops 11.5 for Cardinals at Seahawks

The consensus total on Cardinals at Seahawks has moved from 44.5 to 33. The move followed the report: Michael Wilson (WR1) Active to Questionable.

SEA since this note: −11.5 → −11.5 (no move)

Injury Report

Arizona Cardinals

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
RB Jeremiyah Love
Sun 2:07 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 —
WR Kendrick Bourne
Sun 3:02 PM
Active → Questionable+0.0 —
WR Michael Wilson
Sun 5:55 PM
Active → Questionable+0.1 —
WR Kendrick Bourne
Mon 4:58 PM
Questionable → Doubtful+0.1 —
WR Kendrick Bourne
Mon 6:07 PM
Doubtful → Out+0.0 —
DT Walter Nolen III
Tue 8:27 AM
Out → Questionable−0.3 —
G Jon Gaines II
Tue 8:27 AM
Out → Questionable−0.1 —
RB Jeremiyah Love
Tue 2:12 PM
Questionable → Out+0.2 —
RB Jeremiyah Love
Tue 4:34 PM
Out → IR0.0 —
WR Kendrick Bourne
Tue 4:34 PM
Out → IR0.0 —

Out long-term, already in the line: Paris Johnson Jr. (OL · IR · since Week 5), Will Johnson (DB · IR · since Week 3), Isaiah Adams (OL · IR · since Week 5).

Seattle Seahawks

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Uchenna Nwosu
Tue 8:06 AM
Out → Questionable−0.1 —
LT Charles Cross
Tue 8:27 AM
Out → Questionable−0.5 —
EDGE Leonard Williams
Tue 11:10 AM
Active → Questionable+0.4 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Seahawks side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−11.5 —−5451.18 84.5%42Tue 7:58 PM
Kalshi−11.5 —−5451.18 84.5%42Tue 7:58 PM
DraftKings−10.5 −110−6251.16 82.7%44.5Sun 12:04 AM
FanDuel−11.5 −115−8001.12 85.4%44.5Sun 12:04 AM
Caesars−12 −110−6751.15 83.4%44.5Sun 12:04 AM
BetRivers−11.5 −112−9101.11 86.3%44.5Sun 12:04 AM
BetOnline−12 −110—— —44.5Sun 12:04 AM
LowVig−12 −105—— —44.5Sun 12:04 AM
MyBookie−11 −110−7521.13 83.9%44.5Sun 12:04 AM
BetUS−11 −110—— —44.5Sun 12:04 AM

Best for ARI: Caesars +12 (−110)Best for SEA: DraftKings −10.5 (−110)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Cardinals side is the mirror image.