Week 9 · Sunday, November 8, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Dolphins +7 at our first look, +7 now. 4 injury reports on file. Team pages: Lions · Dolphins
Conditions · Hard Rock Stadium: Forecast 83°F, wind 11 mph, 15% chance of rain.
The read so far
News: Lions −0.8 · Dolphins +0.3 → favors the Dolphins by 1.1. Market: line unchanged. Not priced in
Detroit Lions −0.8
| LB Jack Campbell Active → Doubtful |
Doubtful | −0.4 |
| CB D.J. Reed Active → Questionable · 0.8 if out, sits 36% of the time |
Questionable | −0.3 |
| C Cade Mays Active → Questionable · 0.3 if out, sits 36% of the time |
Questionable | −0.1 |
Miami Dolphins +0.3
| G Kadyn Proctor Out → Questionable · 0.4 if out, sits 36% of the time |
Questionable | +0.3 |
Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. A questionable starter counts at his chance of sitting (shown beside him with his full value if he's ruled out). After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.
Line Movement
+7 no movement since tracking began Tue 3:53 PM ET.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 23.5% (+326) | |
| Price-only move | 25.5% (+292) | |
| Line now | 25.5% (+292) |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 48.5 | |
| DET LB Campbell doubtful | Mon Nov 2, 12:57 AM ET | +0.9 |
| DET CB Reed questionable | Mon Nov 2, 12:57 AM ET | +0.5 |
| MIA G Proctor upgraded | Tue Nov 3, 12:42 PM ET | +0.5 |
| Line now | 50.5 |
Notes
Wind in the Forecast for Lions at Dolphins
The forecast for kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium calls for wind 13 mph, gusting 13. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.
Total since this forecast: 50 → 50.5 (+0.5)
Total rises 1.5 for Lions at Dolphins after last week's results
The consensus total on Lions at Dolphins has moved from 48.5 to 50. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
MIA since this note: +7 → +7 (no move)
Injury Report
Detroit Lions
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| CB D.J. Reed Sun 4:05 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.3 | — |
| LB Jack Campbell Sun 4:05 PM |
Active → Doubtful | +0.4 | — |
| C Cade Mays Mon 6:28 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
Out long-term, already in the line: Avonte Maddox (DB · IR · since Week 3), Thomas Harper (DB · IR · since Week 3), Ben Bartch (OL · IR · since Week 7), Devin White (LB · IR · since Week 7).
Miami Dolphins
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| G Kadyn Proctor Tue 8:27 AM |
Out → Questionable | −0.3 | — |
Out long-term, already in the line: De'Von Achane (RB · IR · since Week 4).
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Dolphins side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +7 | — | +292 | 3.92 | 25.5% | 50.5 | Tue 4:52 PM |
| Kalshi | +7 | — | +292 | 3.92 | 25.5% | 50.5 | Tue 4:52 PM |
| DraftKings | +7 | −105 | +310 | 4.10 | 23.4% | 48.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| FanDuel | +8.5 | −120 | +350 | 4.50 | 21.4% | 48.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| Caesars | +7 | −108 | +325 | 4.25 | 22.6% | 48.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| BetRivers | +7.5 | −107 | +350 | 4.50 | 21.2% | 48.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| BetOnline | +7 | −115 | — | — | — | 49 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| LowVig | +7 | −110 | — | — | — | 49 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| MyBookie | +7 | −110 | +275 | 3.75 | 25.4% | 48.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| BetUS | +7 | −110 | — | — | — | 49 | Sun 12:04 AM |
Best for DET: Caesars −7 (−112)Best for MIA: FanDuel +8.5 (−120)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Lions side is the mirror image.