Week 9 · Sunday, November 8, 8:20 PM ET
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Bears −6 at our first look, −6 now. 3 injury reports on file. Team pages: Buccaneers · Bears
Conditions · Soldier Field: Forecast 51°F, wind 8 mph, 2% chance of rain.
The read so far
News: Buccaneers −0.1 · Bears 0.0. Market: line unchanged.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers −0.1
| LB Yaya Diaby Questionable → Doubtful → Out |
Out | −0.1 |
Chicago Bears 0.0
No news that moves the number.
Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. A questionable starter counts at his chance of sitting (shown beside him with his full value if he's ruled out). After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.
Line Movement
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | −6 | |
| Market move, no reported news | Mon Nov 2, 1:28 AM ET | +1 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Mon Nov 2, 11:47 PM ET | -1.5 |
| TB WR Egbuka upgraded | Tue Nov 3, 10:07 AM ET | +0.5 |
| Line now | −6 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 71.8% (−255) | |
| Market move, no reported news | Mon Nov 2, 1:28 AM ET | 68.1% (−213) |
| Reaction to last week's game | Mon Nov 2, 11:47 PM ET | 74.5% (−292) |
| TB WR Egbuka upgraded | Tue Nov 3, 10:07 AM ET | 71.8% (−255) |
| Line now | 71.5% (−251) |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 48.5 | |
| Wind in the Forecast | Mon Nov 2, 2:00 AM ET | -1.5 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Tue Nov 3, 7:31 AM ET | -0.5 |
| TB WR Egbuka upgraded | Tue Nov 3, 7:58 PM ET | +1 |
| Line now | 47.5 |
Notes
Line moves 1.5 toward the Bears with no reported news
The consensus spread on Buccaneers at Bears has moved from −5 to −6.5 (home side). Neither team has reported news that explains it yet; moves like this often come before a story breaks.
CHI since this note: −6 → −6 (no move)
Wind in the Forecast for Buccaneers at Bears
The forecast for kickoff at Soldier Field calls for wind 5 mph, gusting 28. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.
Total since this forecast: 47 → 47.5 (+0.5)
Total rises 9.5 for Buccaneers at Bears after last week's results
The consensus total on Buccaneers at Bears has moved from 37.5 to 47. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
CHI since this note: −6 → −6 (no move)
Total rises 2.5 for Buccaneers at Bears after last week's results
The consensus total on Buccaneers at Bears has moved from 44.5 to 47. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
CHI since this note: −6 → −6 (no move)
Total drops 1.5 for Buccaneers at Bears after last week's results
The consensus total on Buccaneers at Bears has moved from 48.5 to 47. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
CHI since this note: −5.5 → −6 (−0.5)
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| LB Yaya Diaby Mon 12:33 PM |
Questionable → Doubtful | +0.1 | — |
| LB Yaya Diaby Mon 12:33 PM |
Questionable → Out | +0.1 | — |
| WR Emeka Egbuka Tue 8:27 AM |
Out → Questionable | 0.0 | — |
Out long-term, already in the line: Jalen McMillan (WR · IR · since Week 4), Christian Rozeboom (LB · IR · since Week 7).
Chicago Bears
Nothing on the report.
Out long-term, already in the line: Dayo Odeyingbo (DL · IR · since Week 6), Braxton Jones (OL · IR · since Week 4).
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Bears side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | −6 | — | −251 | 1.40 | 71.5% | 47.5 | Tue 7:58 PM |
| Kalshi | −6 | — | −251 | 1.40 | 71.5% | 47.5 | Tue 7:58 PM |
| DraftKings | −6 | −110 | −270 | 1.37 | 70.0% | 47.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| FanDuel | −6.5 | −110 | −310 | 1.32 | 72.6% | 48.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| Caesars | −6 | −110 | −275 | 1.36 | 70.4% | 48.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| BetRivers | −6 | −113 | −305 | 1.33 | 71.9% | 48.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| BetOnline | −6 | −110 | — | — | — | 48.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| LowVig | −6 | −105 | — | — | — | 48.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| MyBookie | −6 | −110 | −270 | 1.37 | 69.5% | 48 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| BetUS | −6 | −110 | — | — | — | 49 | Sun 12:04 AM |
Best for TB: FanDuel +6.5 (−110)Best for CHI: DraftKings −6 (−110)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Buccaneers side is the mirror image.