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The Sharp Edition
The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 Week 10

Week 10 · Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Falcons +3.5 at our first look, +3 now. 8 injury reports on file. Team pages: Chiefs · Falcons

The read so far

News: Chiefs −1.1 · Falcons −0.4 → favors the Falcons by 0.7. Market: moved 0.5 toward the Falcons. Partly priced in

Kansas City Chiefs −1.1

QB Patrick Mahomes
Active → Questionable · 2.4 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.9
WR Xavier Worthy
Active → Questionable · 0.4 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.1
RT Jaylon Moore
Active → Questionable · 0.3 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.1

Atlanta Falcons −0.4

DT Gervon Dexter Sr.
Active → Questionable · 0.6 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.2
LB James Pearce Jr.
Active → Questionable · 0.2 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.1
LB Divine Deablo
Active → Questionable · 0.2 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.1

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. A questionable starter counts at his chance of sitting (shown beside him with his full value if he's ruled out). After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Falcons lineAtlanta Falcons spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Atlanta.
+3+4Opening line+3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 10:19 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 10:09 PM+0.5KC CB Delane ruled outWed 6:17 PM−0.5Line now+3
+3+4Opening line+3.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 10:19 PM−0.5Market move, no reported newsMon 10:09 PM+0.5KC CB Delane ruled outWed 6:17 PM−0.5Line now+3
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+3.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Nov 8, 10:19 PM ET-0.5
Market move, no reported newsMon Nov 9, 10:09 PM ET+0.5
KC CB Delane ruled outWed Nov 11, 6:17 PM ET-0.5
Line now+3
What moved the Falcons moneylineAtlanta Falcons moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward Atlanta.
+178+163+150+138Opening line+174Reaction to last week's gameSun 10:19 PM+141Market move, no reported newsMon 10:09 PM+174KC CB Delane ruled outWed 6:17 PM+141Less than the spread implies+165Line now+165
+178+163+150+138Opening line+174Reaction to last week's gameSun 10:19 PM+141Market move, no reported newsMon 10:09 PM+174KC CB Delane ruled outWed 6:17 PM+141Less than the spread implies+165Line now+165
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line36.5% (+174)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Nov 8, 10:19 PM ET41.5% (+141)
Market move, no reported newsMon Nov 9, 10:09 PM ET36.5% (+174)
KC CB Delane ruled outWed Nov 11, 6:17 PM ET41.5% (+141)
Less than the spread implies37.7% (+165)
Line now37.7% (+165)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
454647Opening line46.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:17 PM−1.5ATL LB Pearce Jr. questionableWed 12:58 PMmarket moved 5h before the report+0.5KC CB Delane ruled outWed 5:15 PMmarket moved 2h before the report+1.2ATL DT Dexter Sr. questionableWed 5:15 PMmarket moved 1h before the report+0.3Line now47
454647Opening line46.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 9:17 PM−1.5ATL LB Pearce Jr. questionableWed 12:58 PM · market moved 5h before the report+0.5KC CB Delane ruled outWed 5:15 PM · market moved 2h before the report+1.2ATL DT Dexter Sr. questionableWed 5:15 PM · market moved 1h before the report+0.3Line now47
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line46.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Nov 8, 9:17 PM ET-1.5
ATL LB Pearce Jr. questionableWed Nov 11, 12:58 PM ET+0.5
KC CB Delane ruled outWed Nov 11, 5:15 PM ET+1.2
ATL DT Dexter Sr. questionableWed Nov 11, 5:15 PM ET+0.3
Line now47

Notes

InjuryWed Nov 11, 1:59 PM · KC

Reid Expects Mahomes Full Go at Practice

Andy Reid said he expects Patrick Mahomes to practice fully Wednesday despite an elbow issue. That points to the quarterback being available at Atlanta. ESPN player news

KC since this note: −3.5 → −3 (+0.5)

RosterWed Nov 11, 1:59 PM · ATL

Levin Set to Start at Center for Falcons After Neuzil Trade

Atlanta's head coach said Corey Levin will take over at center following the trade of Ryan Neuzil. The change puts a new starter on the interior line against Kansas City. Atlanta Falcons (team site)

ATL since this note: +3.5 → +3 (−0.5)

Team SaysWed Nov 11, 1:22 PM · KC

Chiefs Keep Butker Despite Kicking Struggles

Kansas City will stay with Harrison Butker as its kicker despite a run of missed field goals. He remains the placekicker for the trip to Atlanta. ProFootballTalk

KC since this note: −3.5 → −3 (+0.5)

RosterWed Nov 11, 1:20 PM · KC

Chiefs Add Receiver Josh Downs via Trade

Kansas City acquired wide receiver Josh Downs in a trade on Tuesday. The addition gives the Chiefs another option in the passing game ahead of their trip to Atlanta. Kansas City Chiefs (team site)

KC since this note: −3.5 → −3 (+0.5)

RosterWed Nov 11, 1:20 PM · ATL

Falcons Swap Kickers, Cut Folk and Add Moody

Atlanta released kicker Nick Folk and signed Jake Moody to take over placekicking duties. The team also activated offensive lineman Cameron Williams from injured reserve. Moody is expected to handle field goals against Kansas City. Atlanta Falcons (team site)

ATL since this note: +3.5 → +3 (−0.5)

RosterTue Nov 10, 5:14 PM · ATL

Falcons Trade C Ryan Neuzil to the Ravens

The Atlanta Falcons have agreed to trade starting C Ryan Neuzil to the Baltimore Ravens, ESPN reports. Neuzil comes off the Falcons depth chart before their Week 10 game against the Chiefs. ESPN

ATL since this note: +3.5 → +3 (−0.5)

Injury Report

Kansas City Chiefs

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
RT Jaylon Moore
Sun 3:34 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
WR Xavier Worthy
Sun 4:15 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
QB Patrick Mahomes
Sun 4:52 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.9 —
CB Mansoor Delane
Tue 11:05 AM		 Out → Questionable−0.4 —
CB Mansoor Delane
Wed 7:01 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.4 —

Out long-term, already in the line: Josh Simmons (OL · IR · since Week 7), L'Jarius Sneed (DB · IR · since Week 8), Tyquan Thornton (WR · IR · since Week 6).

Atlanta Falcons

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB James Pearce Jr.
Wed 6:20 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
LB Divine Deablo
Wed 6:20 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
DT Gervon Dexter Sr.
Wed 6:20 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —

Out long-term, already in the line: Da'Shawn Hand (DL · IR · since Week 2), Samson Ebukam (DL · IR · since Week 9).

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Falcons side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+3 +100+1552.55 37.7%47Wed 10:26 PM
Kalshi+3 —+1702.70 37.0%47.5Wed 10:26 PM
DraftKings+3 +100+1542.54 37.8%46.5Wed 10:26 PM
FanDuel+3.5 −115+1522.52 38.2%47.5Wed 10:26 PM
BetMGM+3.5 −118+1552.55 37.4%47Wed 10:26 PM
Caesars+3 +101+1532.53 38.0%47Wed 10:26 PM
Fanatics+3.5 −115+1552.55 37.4%47Wed 10:26 PM
BetRivers+3.5 −117+1552.55 37.6%46.5Wed 10:26 PM
BetOnline+3 +101+1592.59 37.4%47Wed 10:26 PM
Bovada+3.5 −120+1552.55 37.9%47Wed 10:26 PM
LowVig+3 +107+1592.59 37.4%47Wed 10:26 PM
MyBookie+3 +100+1502.50 38.1%47Wed 10:26 PM
BetUS+3 +100+1552.55 37.9%47Wed 10:26 PM

Best for KC: DraftKings −3 (−120)Best for ATL: FanDuel +3.5 (−115)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Chiefs side is the mirror image.