4 reports filed today
Every book · every report · every result

The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 4:25 PM ET

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers

49ers −3.5 at our first look, −2.5 now. 5 injury reports on file.

Line Movement

What moved the 49ers lineSan Francisco 49ers spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against San Francisco.
−4−3−2Opening line−3.5Market move, no reported newsFri 1:21 PM+1SF LB Greenlaw questionableMon 10:47 AM+0.5DEN WR Waddle questionableTue 5:51 PMmarket moved 2h before the report−0.5Line now−2.5
−4−3−2Opening line−3.5Market move, no reported newsFri 1:21 PM+1SF LB Greenlaw questionableMon 10:47 AM+0.5DEN WR Waddle questionableTue 5:51 PM · market moved 2h before the report−0.5Line now−2.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 1:21 PM ET+1
SF LB Greenlaw questionableMon Sep 28, 10:47 AM ET+0.5
DEN WR Waddle questionableTue Sep 29, 5:51 PM ET-0.5
Line now−2.5
What moved the 49ers moneylineSan Francisco 49ers chance to win (no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi). Right = toward San Francisco.
56%58%60%62%64%Opening line64.5% (−182)Market move, no reported newsFri 1:21 PM−138SF LB Greenlaw questionableMon 10:47 AM−130DEN WR Waddle questionableTue 5:51 PMmarket moved 2h before the report−138Price-only move−133Line now57.1% (−133)
56%58%60%62%64%Opening line64.5% (−182)Market move, no reported newsFri 1:21 PM−138SF LB Greenlaw questionableMon 10:47 AM−130DEN WR Waddle questionableTue 5:51 PM · market moved 2h before the report−138Price-only move−133Line now57.1% (−133)
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line64.5% (−182)
Market move, no reported newsFri Sep 25, 1:21 PM ET58.0% (−138)
SF LB Greenlaw questionableMon Sep 28, 10:47 AM ET56.5% (−130)
DEN WR Waddle questionableTue Sep 29, 5:51 PM ET58.0% (−138)
Price-only move57.1% (−133)
Line now57.1% (−133)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Weather and quarterback news move this line.
464748Opening line46.5Market move, no reported newsTue 5:20 PM+1.5Line now48
464748Opening line46.5Market move, no reported newsTue 5:20 PM+1.5Line now48
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line46.5
Market move, no reported newsTue Sep 29, 5:20 PM ET+1.5
Line now48

Notes

InjuryMon Sep 28, 10:57 PM · SF

49ers expect short absences for Evans, Williams and Greenlaw

Kyle Shanahan said the injuries suffered Sunday by Mike Evans, Trent Williams and Dre Greenlaw are not viewed as long-term problems. That keeps three key contributors in play for the Week 4 matchup with Denver rather than ruling them out for an extended stretch. ESPN

SF since this note: −2.5 → −2.5 (no move)

WeatherThu Oct 1, 2:07 AM

Heat at Kickoff for Broncos at 49ers

The forecast for kickoff at Levi's Stadium calls for 90°F. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.

Injury Report

Denver Broncos

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Jaylen Waddle
Tue 7:32 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —

San Francisco 49ers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Mike Evans
Sun 5:45 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —
LT Trent Williams
Sun 6:26 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —
DT Gracen Halton
Sun 7:07 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —
LB Dre Greenlaw
Sun 7:27 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · 49ers side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−2.5 −115−1451.69 57.1%48Thu 4:17 PM
Kalshi−3 —−1301.77 56.5%48Thu 4:17 PM
DraftKings−3 +100−1481.68 57.2%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
FanDuel−2.5 −120−1481.68 57.4%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetMGM−2.5 −118−1501.67 57.4%48Thu 4:17 PM
Caesars−2.5 −120−1481.68 57.3%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
Fanatics−2.5 −115−1451.69 56.6%48Thu 4:17 PM
BetRivers−2.5 −115−1371.73 55.3%47.5Thu 4:17 PM
BetOnline−2.5 −115−1451.69 57.1%48Thu 4:17 PM
Bovada−2.5 −120−1451.69 57.1%48Thu 4:17 PM
LowVig−2.5 −110−1451.69 57.1%48Thu 4:17 PM
MyBookie−3 +100−1601.62 58.1%48Thu 4:17 PM
BetUS−2 −120−1451.69 57.1%48Thu 4:17 PM

Best for DEN: DraftKings +3 (−120)Best for SF: Fanatics −2.5 (−115)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Broncos side is the mirror image.