Week 5 · Sunday, October 11, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Packers −2.5 at our first look, +2.5 now. 1 injury report on file.
Conditions · Lambeau Field: Forecast 74°F, wind 18 mph (gusts 28), 9% chance of rain.
The read so far
News: Bears 0.0 · Packers −0.3 → favors the Bears by 0.3. Market: moved 5 toward the Bears.
Chicago Bears 0.0
No news that moves the number.
Green Bay Packers −0.3
| LB Edgerrin Cooper Active → Doubtful |
Doubtful | −0.3 |
Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.
Line Movement
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | −2.5 | |
| GB LB Cooper doubtful | Sun Oct 4, 6:36 PM ET | +0.7 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 4, 6:36 PM ET | +4.3 |
| Line now | +2.5 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 55.1% (−123) | |
| GB LB Cooper doubtful | Sun Oct 4, 6:36 PM ET | 53.7% (−116) |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 4, 6:36 PM ET | 44.9% (+123) |
| Price-only move | 43.8% (+128) | |
| Line now | 43.8% (+128) |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 45.5 | |
| Wind in the Forecast | Sun Oct 4, 7:48 PM ET | -1 |
| Line now | 44.5 |
Notes
Line moves 1.5 toward the Bears after last week's results
The consensus spread on Bears at Packers has moved from +1 to +2.5 (home side), with 5 of 6 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
GB since this note: +1.5 → +2.5 (+1.0)
Line moves 1 toward the Bears after last week's results
The consensus spread on Bears at Packers has moved from +1.5 to +2.5 (home side), with 5 of 5 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
GB since this note: +1 → +2.5 (+1.5)
Bears monitoring Monangai thumb injury ahead of Green Bay trip
Bears running back Kyle Monangai hurt his thumb during the win over the Jets and the team will monitor him this week. His status matters for Chicago's backfield workload at Green Bay. ProFootballTalk
CHI since this note: −1.5 → −2.5 (−1.0)
Line moves 2.5 toward the Bears after last week's results
The consensus spread on Bears at Packers has moved from −1.5 to +1 (home side), with 1 of 2 books moving the same way. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
GB since this note: −1.5 → +2.5 (+4.0)
Total drops 1.5 for Bears at Packers after last week's results
The consensus total on Bears at Packers has moved from 45.5 to 44. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
GB since this note: −1.5 → +2.5 (+4.0)
Wind in the Forecast for Bears at Packers
The forecast for kickoff at Lambeau Field calls for wind 18 mph, gusting 28. Strong, steady wind has historically cut scoring in the NFL, mostly through the passing and kicking games. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.
Total since this forecast: 45.5 → 44.5 (−1.0)
Line moves 4 toward the Bears ahead of the news
The consensus spread on Bears at Packers has moved from −2.5 to +1.5 (home side), with 5 of 5 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The market started moving 11h 00m before the report: Kevin Zeitler (G) Active to Out.
GB since this note: −2 → +2.5 (+4.5)
Injury Report
Chicago Bears
Nothing on the report.
Green Bay Packers
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| LB Edgerrin Cooper Sun 3:15 PM |
Active → Doubtful | +0.4 | — |
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Packers side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +2.5 | −110 | +120 | 2.20 | 43.8% | 44.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| Kalshi | — | — | +141 | 2.41 | 41.5% | — | Mon 1:22 AM |
| DraftKings | +2.5 | −112 | +124 | 2.24 | 42.8% | 44.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| FanDuel | +2.5 | −110 | +116 | 2.16 | 44.5% | 44.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetMGM | +2.5 | −110 | +120 | 2.20 | 43.4% | 44.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| Caesars | +2.5 | −108 | +116 | 2.16 | 44.5% | 44.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetRivers | +2.5 | −112 | +112 | 2.12 | 45.0% | 44 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetOnline | +2.5 | −110 | +120 | 2.20 | 43.8% | 44.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| LowVig | +2.5 | −105 | +120 | 2.20 | 43.8% | 44.5 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| MyBookie | +2.5 | −110 | — | — | — | 44 | Mon 1:22 AM |
| BetUS | +1 | −105 | — | — | — | 44 | Mon 1:22 AM |
Best for CHI: DraftKings −2.5 (−108)Best for GB: Caesars +2.5 (−108)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Bears side is the mirror image.